Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Firn]

As best as I can tell, we should still have two ships in the Black Sea, although one has a new commander.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...er-sochi-tour/

I doubt we have too much else in the area. I don't believe we can get a carrier into the Black Sea, anyone know about Marine capabilities in the Mediterranean?

While this is all very interesting, it seems that cooler heads are prevailing at least on the Ukrainian side. They will not easily be goaded into a confrontation.

From an Ukrainian perspective a mobilisation or readiness of it's armed forces seems almost a necessity as they certainly won't want to lay their trust into the limited objectives of Putin. While most of the damage has been done already the own goal/imbecile language law was rightly withdrawn. Letting those Russian flags flutter for now in the Crimea and parts of the East may work well into the long-term favour of the current Ukrainian leadership.

1. It does almost force Western states to open their wallets and help the Ukraine politically, financially and economically. I was going to write more about it but it seems that the US president has already issued a statement in this regard:

The people of Ukraine have the right to determine their own future. President Obama has directed his Administration to continue working urgently with international partners to provide support for the Ukrainian government, including urgent technical and financial assistance. Going forward, we will continue consulting closely with allies and partners, the Ukrainian government and the International Monetary Fund, to provide the new government with significant assistance to secure financial stability, to support needed reforms, to allow Ukraine to conduct successful elections, and to support Ukraine as it pursues a democratic future.

2. It does also increasingly isolate Russia financially, economically and politically. Russia needs the European economy much more then Europe needs Russia, especially since Spring is coming. Compared to frozen conflicts in Moldova or Georgia this invasion had a different quality as Russia was clearly the aggressor.

3. The Russian speakers are only by a small margin the majority in the Crimea and the economy relies on tourism and agriculture. Electricity, gas and water comes seemingly from the mainland, just like most necessaties. While it is not out of the question that Putin will pump money into the Crimea to 'win' the 'referendum', incentives Russian tourists and organize the supplies it won't be a smooth ride for the people there. Once again the Russian occuption might be a rougher period for Russia and especially it's occupied Crimean then it imagined.