At this point the most probable explination is electrical fire, assuming the timeline is correct. I can discount the strange altitude changes as radar error. But now you start looking at the "if a, then b" sequence. If fire, then you would expect a mayday. None receive, but explainable as crisis in the cockpit along with electrical issues. Yet still, the pilot/copilot had time to puch a new heading into the computer. If I was after the closest airport, then I would want to drop altitude. If I was not sure I could make it I would want to drop altitude and speed.
I don't know, I am not a commercial pilot familiar with proceedure, so I ask.
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