What worries me is the simple fact that the intel community both in the US and in Europe totally missed this thing as it was building---so much for Pearl Harbor and the creation of an intel team called Indications and Warnings.
Don't blame the analysts. Russia missed it too at the outset, and it became a really bad situation for Putin. It's not as though there weren't EUCOM analysts who weren't watching and charting the course of things.

It just happened that Putin acted decisively and quickly, while we waited for the situation to develop. Facilitating democracy seems to be a wait-and-see enterprise for the US and other democracies. It is easy to outcycle that approach.

I work at a combatant command now, and trust me when I say this: folks know what is going on and what is about to happen. It's the politicians and cabinet principals who don't act in a timely manner.