My latest article compared the insurgent offensive in the spring of 04 with the current one in 14. Many similarities and lessons learned. In 04 the insurgents made an attempt to seize territory and wanted to foment a general uprising against the government. Led to 2 battles of Fallujah and several other clearing ops in places like Tal Afar and Samarra. End of year U.S. thought that insurgents were defeated. Number of intelligence reports to Bush in December said otherwise. Today IS launched summer offensive and was able to seize huge amount of territory in Ninewa, Salahaddin, Kirkuk and Anbar. ISF now taking back the initiative and retaking territory in Salahaddin and Babil and claiming victory. In 04 major ops just dispersed insurgents to other areas and violence actually increased. Same thing might happen in 2015. Read more here.