Stabilization phase

In order to consolidate the results achieved by the hybrid war, the attacking country needs to take additional steps to further strengthen and legitimize its rule. This third phase can be referred to as strategic stabilization. However, in this respect the Eastern Ukraine scenario turned out to be radically different from the Crimean one.

The stabilization phase can be described in detail in three sections
as follows:
Section 7. Political stabilization of the outcome
• Organizing a ‘referendum’ and decision about secession/independence in the target
country, all with the strong diplomatic and media support of the attacking country.
• The new ‘state’ asks for help from the attacking country.

Section 8. Separation of the captured territory from the target country
• 8a: attacking country annexes the captured territory (Crimea), or
• 8b: establishes (open or covert) military presence there, and starts fighting the central
government in the name of the newly established ‘state’, thereby continuing to
weaken it in the political, economic and military sense (Eastern Ukraine). A sub-variant
is an open invasion under the pretext of ‘peacekeeping’ or ‘crisis management’.

Section 9. Lasting limitation of the strategic freedom of movement of the attacked country
• Loss of territory (economy, population, infrastructure, etc.) results in severe economic
hardship, domestic political destabilization and possibly grave humanitarian situation.
• Lacking full control over its territory, the attacked country is unable to
join any political or military alliance that requires territorial integrity.