I think Mr Chalk's would have been correct 18 or so months ago, and he still may be, but the rapid evolution of the insurgents' effectiveness without a logical explanation should prompt us to reevaluate what the ground truth is today. Unsurprisingly, there is evidence of TTP migration from the Middle East, which is at least partly (if not largely) due to the world wide web, but the rapid increase in the size of the IEDs, the effectiveness of their ambushes (from rank amatuer to professional), the brutal killings (beheadings, setting bodies on fire, etc.), etc., make me wonder how this somewhat supposedly isolated insurgent group became so capable so quickly? New leadership? More effective fund raising? or outside support/sponsorship?

One factor worth considering is that as an insurgency matures over the years, there is the possibility that diverging opinions over strategy will lead to splinters in the leadership. We could have our eye on the legacy leadership, which is focused on local issues, not a global jihad or caliphate, while simultaneously a splinter group lead by a Young Turk could have reached out to the JI, or directly to ME terrorist groups for support. Then the success of these operations will create a recruiting gravitational pull of less patient foot soldiers from the legacy insurgency to the new radical group.

It is possible that the insurgency has not reached out and remains a fight over local issues, but I would like to see some analysis explaining the insurgents rapid TTP improvement, and then explain the logistics required that must support it. Southern Thailand unlike Afghanistan and Iraq is not a field Ammo Supply Point where there is an abundance of munitions available. I would think they would have to rely largely on battlefield recovery for their weapons and explosives, but the rapid surge in attacks may indicate otherwise.

What I haven't seen or heard of yet is any propaganda released by the insurgents related to a global jihad, but it might be in their best interest to keep that link quiet for the time being.

Bottom line, I think we need to take a hard look with a fresh set of eyes, just to be on the safe side.