Quote Originally Posted by Major Strickland
The only issue not specifically addressed by this list is the idea of a "grievance" which is central to any insurgency.
The emergence of an insurgency - or of a terrorist group - is more complex than a single grievance or even a stated list of grievances. Regarding analysis of factors central to the emergence of a politically-motivated campaign of violence, I personally like Dr. Sprtzak’s Indicators for Radical Groups at Risk for Terrorism (which is just as applicable to nascent insurgent movements as it is to emerging terrorist groups):
• The intensity of delegimitization: The degree to which the radical group challenges the legitimacy of its opponents. The more intense the delegitimization, the greater the risk for violence.
• Moral inhibitions and non-violence taboos: Societal strictures on the legitimacy of violence. Radical groups operating in fragmented political cultures with a history of violence.
• Previous experience with violence: A radical group whose members have experience with violence, conflict, and weapons.
• Rational assessment of risks vs opportunities: The degree to which the radical group has calculated the necessity and feasibility of confronting its enemies with violence.
• Organizational, financial, and political resources: The degree to which the radical group has the resources, or can access the resources, to support a campaign of violence.
• Sense of imminent threat: The degree to which a radical group feels threatened by its enemies. The more imminent and catastrophic the threat is believed to be, the greater the risk the group will resort to armed violence.
• Intergroup competition: The degree to which a radical group is in competition with another group for a shrinking constituency and terrorism is perceived to be the path to keeping the group on top.
• Age of activists: The degree to which the radical group is composed of young activists. The greater the concentration of activists between the ages of 18 and 25, the greater the potential for recruitment.
• External influence and manipulation: The type and level of support provided to radical organizations.
• Sense of humiliation and need for revenge: The degree to which the radical group is subjected to physical repression or torture, or perceives itself to be humiliated by its enemies. The greater the sense of humiliation, the greater the risk that the radical group will take revenge.
• Presence of violent leaders: The degree to which the leader or leadership of the radical group demonstrates a history of violent behavior. The more violent the leaders, the greater the risk.