Quote Originally Posted by Rank amateur View Post
I've learned you that you do whatever you can to get a tactical advantage: especially when you're outgunned.
it's always a prob...

Re: juvenile: Other than Afghanistan, all our COIN missions are optional and retreat isn't the same as defeat. If success requires at least a decade, and we're not prepared to stay a decade than engaging means almost certain failure.
Afghanistan is optional, totally, as well. Iraq was not intended to be a COIN job; something changed in May 2003 and we turned from an imminent departure to staying. Thus far, I haven't been able to find out what that was. Could speculate but not here.

That decade bit is Kilcullen and Co. blather -- it's not written in stone, the length can vary depending on many parameters; Kenya only took a nominal seven years, 1952-59 but most of the the actual fighting was confined to 1954-57. Greece also took only three -- conversely, the Philippines took over 15 in total; ten is just an average. Nothing in war is ever certain and the unexpected is always right around the corner...

No, retreat is not the same as defeat -- yet, it can send a message that is better not sent. For example we retreated in front of ME attacks from 1979 until 2001, over 20 of them with the Tehran Embassy seizure and the several messes in Beirut simply encouraging them to keep at it. We weren't defeated but we were embarrassed and looked weak. To the ME, that is an open invitation to attack. They do not fight like we do and they do not think like we do -- they aren't wrong, just different.

Each successive turning of the other cheek only emboldens them. Carter, Reagan, Bush 41 and Clinton all erred significantly in that regard -- you don't like where we are; they're the folks you really need to be upset with. They are the reason we're in the ME (Afghanistan is NOT in the ME), the current Admin is merely the reason the place in the ME is Iraq. I'd submit that if one has to be there in a combat mode, Iraq is easily the easiest and best place to be...

You have to tailor your tactics and your parameters to your enemy. You do not need to fight the way he fights but you have to know how he fights and you should be very careful not to send the wrong signals. We did that for almost 30 years and are paying the price for doing so. We could leave Iraq and do it fairly quickly. I'll flat guarantee you that if we do it too quickly we'll have to go back and it will be far worse.