Scrutinizing Petraeus's Record

[Rank amateur]

I thought I'd dig up this thread. It bounced around a lot but my thesis that building capacity and creating breathing space doesn't automatically produce reconciliation seems relevant today.

Ken's comment "pressure is more likely to create resistance" is interesting given the pressure being placed on Sadr.

Marc might want to comment on the tribal reconciliation process when one side suddenly has more weapons than the other.

Another one of Ken's comments that is interesting: "It is considered not only permissible but desirable to lie (as we in the west see it -- they do not look at it that way) to a customer -- or a foreigner..." leads me to another hypothesis: Iraqis have figured out that if they call their rivals "terrorists" we'll use our use kinetic weapons against their rivals.

And finally, Ken's comment that "no one in the ME will ever 'trust' anyone who iis not family (preferably) or tribe / clan / moetie, etc (secondarily)" is undoubtedly true and supports my hypothesis that capacity building won't work. The government uniform comes off as soon as the fur flies. Here's photographic proof from CNN that it happened at least once.


An Iraqi police commando receives a Quran and an olive branch after deserting Saturday in Baghdad's Sadr City.

While everyone has acknowledged the brilliance and accuracy of Ken's previous post, no one has added up what it all means. It means that Iraqis only held up their purple fingers because they knew we were watching. It means that the only way to rule Iraq is the way Saddam did: give the most important responsibilities to your family and rule your family with an iron fist. Give the next most important responsibilities to your tribe and rule them with an iron fist. Give the next most important responsibilities to your religious group and rule them with an iron fist. Oppress everyone else with an iron fist. The mistake that Ken makes is thinking that if we deploy an iron fist for 10 or 15 years it won't matter that we don't have a family, a tribe or a relevant religious group in Iraq.

That's why I suggest that if you are in Iraq you reduce every interaction to a business transaction as simple as buying a carpet: how much do you want to attack Al Qaeda? That's why strategically I advocate withdrawal; we're never going to succeed without a family, without a tribe and without a religious group in the fight.