I will take a look at the doc and you caught my attention with the "spinach scenario" - but that might be a different thread in the "2 Shop" section. Interesting stuff, and scary, to say the least.

That said, M&S seems to be great for phenomena that has a “signature” – either “tech” or say biological as in the out-break and spread of an infectious disease. The first, “tech”, can be modeled for intentions because parameters are often known. The second, biological, also can (more like monitored) because many parameters are also known.

When it comes to COIN the parameters of human behavior of the insurgents (and terrorists) as well as the local populace are not known in such a detail as to be of any value in an automated system – M&S won't solve our problems here.