AF Secretary and Chief of Staff Dismissed

[wm]

I'd like to hope that our volunteer forces will give us that year in a future major conflict. However, 2 potentially significant differences from the two wars in your list that may have been life threatening to the US as a nation (the 2 World Wars--Korea and VN were neither direct or indirect threats to the continued existence of the American way of life) make me worry.

I'd argue that none of the wars I listed including the two world wars were life threatening to the US but that's another thread.

Concur--remember my original post only said may have been life threatening to the US.

However the sheer number and dispersion of them (factories) in a nation this size makes that a somewhat daunting prospect for any potential adversary.

Not too much dispersion these days vis-a-vis critical defense industry factories--for example, Lima, Ohio is the only tank factory in the US. Two big strikes--at, for example, Galveston, TX and Linden NJ--would have significant inpact on US mid/down stream petroleum industry. Or imagine the impact of a large ADM detonation in the vicinity of Hampton or beautiful downtown Norfolk, VA.

2.) The US all volunteer force is currently the only thing protecting the nation. ... not in some low level skirmishes against poorly trained and equipped irregulars or third rate national armies. ...the difference being that we would not have another country's army to cover us while we recover from our mistakes. (Emphasis added / kw)

I think you sell this Army short. The part in bold denigrates a lot of folks who may be smarter than some seem to think. I also suggest that adequate warning of a potential major adversary, even given the sad state of the IC today, is very highly probable -- enough so that I'm comfortable with it. YMMV

Ken you quoted me out of context (are you looking for a job at the NYT? ) I was comparing the quality of our past and potential opponents, not the capabilities of our own forces. Having been part of the IC's I & W (indications and warning) world, I am not quite as comfortable as you are about IC forecasting. I am even less comfortable with the decisionmakers' ability to draw the right conclusions and act based on what the IC may tell them.

Uh, wm, you aren't going all Euro-centric and north German Plain or Fulda Gap on me are you???

Far from it. I never expected that war to occur after about 1978 anyway. I'm more worried about some mid rate power thinking it can pull off a Pearl Harbor-like event on US infrastructure in order to buy itself enough time to to do some local conquests and then be able to consolidate on its objective while the US tries to rebuild its shattered infrastructure. The attacking power would expect its consolidation would be strong enough to deter the US (and others) from interceding to restore the status quo ante. Imagine how things might have turned out in the Mid-East had Saddam tried such a tactic as or before he rolled over the border into Kuwait.