Defining Success in Counterinsurgency

[Surferbeetle]

This may appear to be cruel and indifferent, but I think war is a form of social/political evolution. If there is compelling need for a group of people to evolve and there is no other recourse (political or other peaceful method of change) to facilitate that evolution, man will result to conflict. Simply getting to a so called equilibrium point will not solve the underlying issues, and it may freeze frame a region into a permanent state of conflict.

If we're going to commit forces, then let's do it to win. Insurgenices can be defeated, as written elsewhere throughout this council it is the HN that defeats the insurgency, and if our help is needed, then we assist them. Our actions are not decisive, they are enabling.

Bill,

Darwin is an interesting guy who managed to uncover a fundamental truth. I am of the opinion that civilization is an extremely thin veneer and we forget this at our peril. Nature, be it at the chemical, microbial, plant, or animal level (this includes us) is all about equilibriums. There is no static decisive point for a species other than extinction.

Examining Iraq it appears that the in-country factions are waiting for our election results to reveal the future orientation of America's foreign policy while scheming about how to maximize any resulting opportunities. There was alot of anger in that country when I was there, and alot of blood has flowed since then. Somebody will have to continue to cut deals so that stability efforts can take hold. We just need to keep in mind that it's not Kansas nor will it ever be. I have always been a fan of the school of 'walk softly but carry a big stick' and feel that some of these lessons are a viable solution to our troubles.

Chechnya may indeed be an applicable model for a future Iraq. Even the Russians (not such big fans of the whole PC thing) have not been able to stamp out conflict and bring complete stability to that country. The British Empire, (PC-capable as required) even with their vaunted Colonial Service had on-going issues in several of their colonies. The Romans did well using non PC techniques but I submit that they were stuck with equilibrium points just like we are.

This weekend I am going to draft up a note for Rob Thorton on his stability thread about public private partnerships vs. the limited/non-existent rule of law environment and would appreciate your insights if you get a chance. I am going to try to cover north america, latin america, and europe vs. iraq....this will probably require a couple of beers to build up some steam however.

Regards,

Steve