Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Political Commentary

[Norfolk]

Concur.

From my admittedly limited open source views, I find the operation to be on about a par with the US mission to Grenada, coupled with the ability to have done the kind of extended train up that the US had prior to DS. I do not find the outcome to be too impressive. I do note that they did a real good job of knowing what the key nodes were and how to set themselves up to be able to respond to counter measures AKA Terrain IPB). IOW the OPPLAN seemed well done and the execution was what one might expect of a unit that was basicaly doing an end of training cycle FTX. To draw the conclusion that the Russian military is really a world class power is a little beyond the premises' strength I think.

The Georgia-Grenada comparison has been put out in quite a few places lately, and it seems to be an accurate enough one. Still, it seems strange to compare the Mexican standoff between Cuban construction workers and the Rangers and the 82nd at Point Salines airfield to the Russian occupation of much of Georgia. At least the US disposed of the matter in only 3 days; the Russians are, for the moment at least, still stuck outside Tblisi. Though certainly no one is laughing.

One of the things that has really struck me when viewing pictures and videos of Russian troops has been the great preponderance of Motorised Infantry; not surprisingly given that it was elements of a MRD that hit the Georgians in South Ossetia. But Georgian claims that they took out 40 Russian tanks (out of a reported total of some 90, with 150 APCs/IFVs) mostly north of T-town don't seem implausible, even if the Georgians still cracked in the end. Now, whether that count is more or less accurate, and whether or not the "tanks" really were tanks and not a combination of all manner of AFVs, it still seems likely that the Russians took a bit of a beating themselves in the early stages.

Even if the Russians do mostly withdraw, it seems unlikely that they'll settle for anything less than seeking to install a client-government, at least, in the long run in Georgia. It seems difficult to imagine Georgia being able to successfully resist such pressure over the long haul.