Agree that HN govt can win COIN and that outside power can only support HN (or insurgents). Malaya is a good example of creating a HN govt to turn over power to.

Other cases of "wins" are Bolivia over Che Guevara, El Salvador over FMLN (if you doubt that the govt won look at the terms of the peace agreement compared to what was offered in 1984 - same), Guatemala (3 times). The GT case is particularly instructive because only the third time were the root causes of the insurgencies even addressed. But the second generation of insurgents was both ethncally and geogrphically different from the first generation while the third was different from both its predecessors.

Cheers

JohnT