What we really need is a better crystal ball

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to Rick M for drawing attention to the forecast energy shortage soon (from the Energy Security thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...?t=7629&page=2) and a shorter edition placed above (Post 12): "Why haven't more people in government, and the oil industry itself, seen this particular crisis coming? Why aren't they acting proactively to soften the blow?"

The Leggett article is far wider in analysis: http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion...t-1766551.html

I quote (shortened):

The same question can be asked, with hindsight, of the bonus cultists who gave us the credit crunch... Gillian Tett of the Financial Times, a trained anthropologist, describes the effort made by the banking elite at "ideological domination" ahead of the financial crash. Elites do this to maintain power, she explains. They decide what is talked about and what is not. There was a major "social silence" around the epidemic growth of derivatives....This is exactly what I see going on among my old friends in the oil industry when it comes to weighing their assets....One of the few financiers who saw the credit crunch coming said derivatives were financial hydrogen bombs built by 26-year-olds with MBAs. Here is another set of similarities and differences. The oil crunch is an economic hydrogen bomb. But it is being built by men close to retirement.

So the search for a crystal ball involves generations and reducing 'silence'.