Energy Security

[Rick M]

Here are the two graphs from the Nov.08 IEA World Energy Outlook.
Neither graph was included in the Executive Summary (I got these from Matt Simmons' presentations).

The upper graph indicates a steep decline in crude oil production from currently producing fields, starting now and dropping to around 25 mbpd by 2030.
The anticipated growth in production to 104 mbpd requires 64 mbpd of actual production (ie. the "six new Saudi Arabias" that must be found and brought on-stream, all within 20 years).

Please note the relatively flat line for crude oil from 2005/6 onward. Even adding in the "yet-to-be found" and enhanced oil recovery, the line barely lifts and does not reach 80 mbpd.
This is consistent with the claims of Matt Simmons and several other analysts that "peak oil is already past tense" since crude oil production has been stuck between 74 and 75 mbpd since early 2005.
The WEO indicates that we are likely to move much beyond that and that any growth in liquids must come from other sources.
(How much of that energy will be net energy is another story....)

The second graph reveals how reliant our past and current oil production is on giant fields which have been producing for 40 years or more (let's not quibble over a few months... 2010 will be here soon enough and we're talking decades).
Meanwhile the Santos Basin off the coast of Brazil has been touted as the largest discovery of oil & gas in over 20 years. Some analysts believe that there may be up to 31 billion barrels.
Even ignoring the issue of net energy, 31 billion is equal to current annual global consumption... 365 days.