Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
Personally, I and a few others consider Iranian nuclear capability to be strategically less important than popularly imagined.

a.) How can they use nukes against Israel as a strategic option? Why is killing 75% of the population of Israel, going to further any policy especially when it might results in the death of 50% of the Iranian and loss of 90% of it's GDP for 5 years.
- The argument that Iran has an irrational leadership would always have to suppose that they cannot be rationally deterred. Thus, NO US/Israeli action can provide the strategic result necessary.

b.) It could well be suggested that threat of Iranian WMD has done nothing but benefit Israel in terms of maintaining a number of "flag ship" programmes which would otherwise have been under threat.

c.) The other issue being avoided is how Iranian interference in Israeli security, de-facto dams any prospect of a Palestinian State, since it is Iran's aim to control any Palestinian Government, in order to base forces within the Palestinian state.

d.) Iranian WMD is primarily a strategic issue for the US, in terms of it's ability to project power in the region - and that has security implications for Israel, as does any interference in Middle East strategic dynamics.
For the first time we agree. If the iranian regime is so completely out-of-control as Cohen and others suggest, why is it and (has been) acting so cautiously (and in some cases ingeniously) in the last couple of years? Any system that is not interested or uncapable of organising its survival will show signs of it in the long term. As I see the mullahs do EVERYTHING in their power to survive as long as possible. Knowing Israel (its history, its capabilities and the Samson-plan) they are very well aware of their limits.

The only thing where I dont agree with you wilf that a nuclear Iran limits not only the US's but all other countries power projection ablilties (including Israel's). One thing I am sure it does not worth a war in the gulf with all its attached implications (oil, US troop presenence etc.). There are a million other ways then sabre rattling to reach sensitive points.