Oil becomes a crucial factor of shaping international relations": scarcity leads to a deliberalization of oil markets which in turn leads to more bilateral supply relationships. A window of opportunity opens for oil-exporting nations to pursue their economic, political, and ideological goals in regard to industrialized [importing] nations.
- Western foreign policy (e.g. towards Africa, MidEast) will have to become more "pragmatic" -- China et al. are already "pragmatic" and therefore better positioned. "Military interventions will become more selective - actors are overstrained". A new focus on one's own problems.
- "The transformation to a post-fossil-fuel society leads to economic and political crises": unemployment, food scarcity, less market-based distribution of oil products (rationing). Ultimately there is a "loss of trust" in public and governmental institutions which will possibly lead to more extremism and fragmentation on a national and international level.
- "Systemic risk of a 'Tipping Point'":
In the short term, oil production decline leads to reduced economic activity and trade. Loss of income for some actors, loss of livelihood for others. National budgets come under extreme pressure because of reduced tax revenue and higher spending on unemployment, food, and alternatives to oil.
- "In the medium term, the global economic system and every market-based economy breaks down. [...] Tipping Point: In an economy that is shrinking for the foreseeable future, savings are not invested anymore [...] banking sytem, stock markets, financial markets collapse [...] a completely new system status [...] Banks lose their reason to exist... since they can't earn interest [...] Loss of trust in currencies [...] Collapse of [international] value chains. Mass unemployment [...] National bankruptcies [...] Breakdown of critical infrastructure [...] Famines [...]
- It is probable that a high number of nations will not be able to make necessary investments in a timely and adequate manner. A high systemic risk is a given regardless of Germany's own energy policy because of its high grade of globalization."
- "Even if society's faith in market-based systems is big, its understanding of complex matters small, and its assumption of rational economic actors questionable, one can expect [...] uncertainty to give way to the realization that a critical point has been passed.
Bookmarks