Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
Logic dictates that smart COIN be aimed at the head of the snake, and the best way to do this is to talk, make reasonable concessions, deal strongly with the unreasonable, but to make room in government for those who are willing to participate.
But who is supposed to talk, make reasonable concessions, deal strongly, make room? Us, or the Karzai Government? If the insurgent leadership's primary beef is with the Karzai Government, isn't that who they need to talk to? And if we're doing the talking, who's governing Afghanistan?

I'm not at all sure the insurgent leadership has any interest in talking, to us or the Karzai Government. That kind of negotiation needs to be conducted from a position of strength, and neither we nor the Karzai Government are in such a position.

I'm also not convinced that "logic dictates that smart COIN be aimed at the head of the snake". In some cases it may be so, in some cases it may not be so. If the followers see that their grievances are being addressed and have some reasonable prospect of resolution, they may cease to follow, and a head without a body is no threat. I think the allegation that "as the head is in place there will always be a tail" is not necessarily true. As long as the followers are angry and disaffected they will always find new leaders, but if the populace is not angry and disaffected the would-be leaders have nothing to work with. If we address the concerns of the follower the leader can be rendered irrelevant, and in cases where the leader's desires are fundamentally incompatible with our interests - and where the leaders have no interest in negotiating with us - this may be a more practical step.

Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
This is where the Afghan Constitution is such a problem. It excludes huge segments of society from participation simply because one man deems it so. This is a recipe for insurgency.
Doubtless true, and certainly the Afghan constitution is deeply flawed. It is by no means certain that a different document will have better results: societies shape structures more than structures shape societies. In any event the search for a structure that suits Afghanistan is something that has to be managed by Afghans.