Uganda: catch all

[JMA]

Rex,

The question is who if the african are not doing the job?

That's all the strategy now. African powers want to show they are capable to take care of Africa and Western powers do not want to get directly involved.
So either we leave the place to China....
Or we train guys to do the job. The last question being: what do we do with them once the job is done...

I'm not sure that even with a relaxing of the ROE the Ugandan army will be able to take Shabab on tactically man for man. I think their position that they will send another 2,000 troops if the ROE are relaxed is the first statement in a process where they will say "because you won't relax the ROE we will not be sending the additional 2,000 troops and and also we will withdraw the 2,700 odd troops we already have there... unless you make it worth our while to leave them there"

Who is going to train these troops and for how long?

[Rex Brynen]

I'm not sure that even with a relaxing of the ROE the Ugandan army will be able to take Shabab on tactically man for man.

Tactically, man-for-man, the Shabab are actually mind-numbingly incompetent, with rare exceptions. Their loss rates against the Ugandans often appear to be quite high, even within constrained ROE, and what casualties they have inflicted have generally been with IEDs or shoot-and-scoot mortar attacks not in direct firefights.

The TFG, sadly, are even more mind-numbingly incompetent.

That being said, it is hard to see how even a trebling of the AMISOM mission would fundamentally change the dynamics in Somalia. Outcomes are less a product of military force than shifting clan and political alliances.

[Rex Brynen]

It would seem that Uganda is responding to the attack by increasing the size of its AMISOM contingent, as well as renewing its call for more relaxed ROEs.

The US has also pledged to increase (training, logistical, and other) support.

[JMA]

Tactically, man-for-man, the Shabab are actually mind-numbingly incompetent, with rare exceptions. Their loss rates against the Ugandans often appear to be quite high, even within constrained ROE, and what casualties they have inflicted have generally been with IEDs or shoot-and-scoot mortar attacks not in direct firefights.

The TFG, sadly, are even more mind-numbingly incompetent.

That being said, it is hard to see how even a trebling of the AMISOM mission would fundamentally change the dynamics in Somalia. Outcomes are less a product of military force than shifting clan and political alliances.

I hear what you say.

If you have been following other threads where I post you may have seen that I am a great believer in using local forces to do the fighting rather than bring in raw, fresh, ignorant foreigners for that purpose. At the moment in Afghanistan there is no choice but... in Somalia maybe there is a better way.

My comment on the Ugandan army is based on their inability in their own country to deal with LRA which apparently comprises a majority of child soldiers.

Let me start with making the assumption that both Shabab and the TGF draw their forces from the same population with differences in clan and whatever.

While I appreciate that motivation is 9 tenths of the matter would an investment into training the TGF troops not provide a better return on investment rather than bring in "foreign Christians" from Uganda to try to do the job?

There are a number of options as to how this training may be approached and I am wondering what if anything along these lines has be attempted?

[davidbfpo]

Always worth a read Leah Farrell from Australia:http://allthingsct.wordpress.com/201...cks-in-uganda/

So…. if my speculation pans out, what can we expect to see??

Well, first a polished al-Shabab propaganda video, referencing the attacks and labeling them with some derivative or signifier of the Battle of Badr, and announcing the new AQ branch name. Alternatively an announcement from AQ HQ, but with Adam’s piss poor efforts at As Sahaab lately that’s not likely and I’d bank more on a slick presentation from al-Shabab.

Anyway, there’s my two cents worth on it all. As I said it could very well be a case of these attacks being opportunity driven and related more to regional dynamics.

However, it is also worth bearing in mind that an expansion of a group’s operational ambit in a manner like this has been a feature of group behaviour just prior to a merger with AQ core, as well as being a trait of those seeking formal sanction.

[M-A Lagrange]

Opening the summit, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni called for action to "sweep the terrorists' out of Africa.
And he blamed foreigners for the Kampala attacks, which the Somali-base al-Shebab group has said it carried out.
"Let them go back to Asia or the Middle East where I understand some come from," he said.
Museveni also said many of the organisers of the attacks in Kampala have been arrested and questioned.
"Their interrogations have yielded very good information," he added.
Mutharika declared the organisation's solidarity with Uganda.
"The African Union stands with you, my brother President Museveni, and with the people of Uganda," he said in his opening remarks.
The summit was supposed to concentrate on women, children and health but these questions have so far been overshadowed by the response to the Kampala bombings.
Museveni tried to allay fears by women and child rights activists here that the original theme of the summit was being put in the back seat as leaders grapple with Somalia, Sudan and reform of the UN Security Council," reports Billie O'Kadameri from the summit. "The theme chosen chosen for this summit is 'Maternal and Child Health and Infant Development in Africa' but Museveni said it was a narrow view of looking at the bigger problem.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201007250027.html

I believe the message is pretty clear. Will Uganda be the Africa policeman for Central Africa in the future?
At least, they are playing a more and more important role in the regional stabilisation process.

[davidbfpo]

An interesting analysis of the incident and repercussions by RUSI's African expert (a Zimbabwean): http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment...4C45B35122E02/

On the domestic aspects this intrigued me:

Interestingly, there is also strong civilian support at home for Uganda's deployment. The atrocities committed by the Lord's Resistance Army (which has itself become a regional threat), remain indelibly etched in the memories of Ugandans. Al Shabab also uses brutal methods including beheadings and maimings, and most Ugandans fear that a full al Shabab takeover in Somalia would spread Islamist extremism and social conflict throughout the Horn and East of Africa. They thus prefer that Somalia, rather than Uganda, remains the battleground for the Ugandan army operations against al Shabab.

[M-A Lagrange]

Actually the blast of the sheebab bombs made cusualties far over Uganda. I was told recently that the arab and asian communities in Burundi had been targetted by police just after. Also, in several congolese news papers, the Ugandan opposants (ADF-Nalu) are now presented as a group of islamic fundementalist who want to create an Islamic Emirat in Congo... (2 years ago, ADF-Nalu did already exist and they were just considered has an armed rebellion against Ugandan regime.)
Out of the craziness from this anti muslim campaign, the problematic of Central Africa armed groups leaders trained in Pakistan seems to be real. I wonder how much this is linked with the presence of numerous Pakistanese troops (and some ISI) in the UN contingents.
It is true that since Pakistan has been present in DRC, the number of Muslims in Eastern Congo has increased. But Muslims were present long before in East africa... A sad export of the Afghan war in an area which did not need it.

[M-A Lagrange]

Ugandan journalist to face sedition charges
Kalegyira was interrogated for more than 10 hours this week in connection with articles published on his Uganda Record website, police and his lawyer said.

A day after the attacks last month, which were claimed by Somalia's Al-Qaeda inspired Shebab militants, Kalegyira pointed to Uganda's military as the culprits.

"A top source in the Ugandan army speculates that the bombs were set off in order to justify seeking more money and equipment from the United States," he posted on July 12.

"As the Uganda Record has insisted from the beginning, the investigations are very likely going to uncover the fact that it was not Al-Shabab that carried out the attacks," he also wrote.

Kalegyira, also a regular contributor to Ugandan major dailies, has made similar claims citing anonymous sources in recent weeks.

"You look at the content of these articles, these are media crimes," said the police officer.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/10080..._attacks_media

Such assumptions are not completely crazy since Lightening Thunder has been a non success and US do disangage slowly on the military side. They are not the only one to have had such opinion.
Also the reaction of the autorities seems disproportionated and make the make up possibility really attractive.

[Rex Brynen]

Such assumptions are not completely crazy since Lightening Thunder has been a non success and US do disangage slowly on the military side. They are not the only one to have had such opinion.
Also the reaction of the autorities seems disproportionated and make the make up possibility really attractive.

Although, in this case, al-Shabab formally claimed responsibility. While groups have been known to claim attacks they didn't undertake, in this case I would say it makes the very implausible secret-Uganadan-plot suggestion even less plausible.

[M-A Lagrange]

Although, in this case, al-Shabab formally claimed responsibility. While groups have been known to claim attacks they didn't undertake, in this case I would say it makes the very implausible secret-Uganadan-plot suggestion even less plausible.

Completely agree on that. This looks like a bad James Bond.
My point is rather focussed on the over reaction of Kampala. Their position would have been much more credible if they did nothing. Sending journalist to jail is the worst publicity you can do to your self and it discredits all what you say.
Just like the anti muslim propaganda and operations in Burundi or DRC.
Fact show that some leader of armed groups in the region may have been trained in Pakistan or Somalia or any other place in a muslim country. But then having random arrest of any person going to the mosque on friday is the stupidest reaction.
Asking your self the link between presence of huge pakistany contingents for more than a decade and the fact that some peacespoilers in the region get training in muslim countries would be a much better approach. Just like starting to have some human intel from inside the muslim communities.
In 2007, Islamic Relief Worldwide (the UK based NGO) had a mission in Goma! 2 or 3 years before you just could not imagine such organisation being interrested in even opening a mail box in Goma.

[JMA]

Although, in this case, al-Shabab formally claimed responsibility. While groups have been known to claim attacks they didn't undertake, in this case I would say it makes the very implausible secret-Uganadan-plot suggestion even less plausible.

I suggest you keep the options open.

[M-A Lagrange]

Uganda bombing suspects arrested entering Rwanda
Wednesday, 18 August 2010 16:31 by RNA Reporters in Kigali and Kampala

Kigali: Two Somali nationals suspected to be connected to the bombings in Uganda have been transferred to the capital Kampala after they were arrested trying to enter Rwanda, border officials said.

http://www.rnanews.com/regional/4029...ntering-rwanda

How did they got arrested? Borders are not really "waterproof" in africa.
Anyway, Rwanda is not the quickest road to Somalia... That's for sure.

[JMA]

http://www.rnanews.com/regional/4029...ntering-rwanda

How did they got arrested? Borders are not really "waterproof" in africa.
Anyway, Rwanda is not the quickest road to Somalia... That's for sure.

Another thing about Africa is that if progress in an investigation is needed, arrests followed by signed "confessions" will happen.