Bombing Iranian nuclear facilities (again)
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The Saudi Option
Entry Excerpt:
The Saudi Option
by Tristan Abbey and Scott Palter
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The year is 2012. Squadrons of F-15s, F-16s, and F-18s streak across the sky, swamping air defenses and neutralizing other key Iranian installations. The next wave targets the uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Qom, the nuclear power station at Bushehr, the conversion plant in Isfahan, and the heavy water plant at Arak. Within hours the Iranian nuclear program is crippled. As the armada returns to base, the head of state who ordered the attack readies to congratulate the pilots who carried it out.
“Peace be upon you all,” King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz says to his men. “Your bravery humbles me. The Saudi Kingdom will be forever grateful.
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Since the Bush administration forced the issue of Iran’s nuclear program to the fore in 2002, debating the merits and perils of a preemptive airstrike has become something of a favorite pastime. Amid all the chatter about narrow corridors and Saudi “green lights” lies an inescapable truth: a surprise Israeli strike has never been more unlikely.
The contours of the problem have remained largely unchanged over the years. The United States risks too much by attacking Iran, while an Israeli strike is difficult to achieve without American backing. None of the countries that could conceivably grant Israel over-flight rights—Turkey, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia—relishes the thought of being seen as complicit in a Zionist-Crusader foray against yet another Muslim country. Logistical requirements, namely limited refueling capacity, restrict the Israeli Air Force’s options to but a single multi-squadron assault of questionable long-term effectiveness. Tel Aviv, essentially, has one bullet.
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Tristan Abbey and Scott Palter are senior editors at Bellum: A Project of The Stanford Review.
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