which has general relevance to the topic at hand and the current world; and particular relevance to the question of elections, "democracy" and legitimacy:
Let us not argue about whether elections were "scheduled"; what the 1954 Geneva Accords actually "accorded"; and who was bound to be "accorded" by those "accords".
Solely for purposes of this discussion, I will accept that Vietnam-wide elections were scheduled for 1956. You get to pick the "scheduled date", unless you actually have found a scheduled date (which, if it exists, would be of great interest to me).
The first thing we have to do (in writing this alternative history) is to see whether we disagree as to the likely results of that hypothetical election. Now, since you are the proponent, I should say that you go first. But, to get this thing moving, I'll give my take.
In 1956, the North's population was at ~ 15M; the South's at ~ 12M. By 1956, Vo Nguyen Giap, but more so Truong Chinh, had pretty much cleaned up the North.
Chinh and Giap had early on collaborated in writing
Van de dan cay ("The Peasant Question"), originally published in Hanoi in 1937 and 1938, with the authors using the pseudonyms Qua Ninh and Van Dinh. Chinh (General Secretary of the Lao Dong) was so zealous in the Land Reform Campaign of 1953-1956 (another collaboration with Giap) that he had to be put on the shelf. That campaign was very effective in neutralizing (killing, detaining or converting) "counter-revolutionaries". Sources for my ramblings are from the online docs which can be downloaded from here,
Writings by and about Important Communist Leaders.
The bottom line (IMO) was that Uncle Ho in a 1956 election would have been assured of the votes in the North that he actually received in the North's elections (where a 90% win would have shown the presence of too many "counter-revolutionaries"). To those Northern votes, we can fairly safely add roughly 1/3 of the votes in the South - the Viet Minh controlled ~ 1/3 of the South's population when the fighting stopped in 1954. So, Ho and the Lao Dong win (nationwide votes: ~ 2/3 Ho; ~ 1/3 Others).
If you agree that would have been the probable result, you can continue with your alternative history of what then would have ensued in the South and for Vietnam as a whole (we know what actually happened in the North); and I suppose you should include what would have happened in Southeast Asia as a region (since that was the real prize, not Indochina). I'm sure you will include the good, the bad and the ugly.
Regards
Mike
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