I support this assertion all the way. If Iran is challenged, they will want to compete with their opponents. Iran is a fairly decent sized country (72 million people); they aren't going to be pushed around. In fact, a strike on Iran will not only force them to mobilize their assets and react against US troops, but it will also cause Iran to put forth more resources into its nuclear program. Lastly, let's not throw away the idea that Iran may take "radical" steps to survive. What happens when the Taliban start shooting down our choppers with 3rd generation Iranian MANPADS? The point is that Iran will put forth a substantial amount of effort into developing its nuclear program and obstructing US interests.
This is also completely correct. Economic sanctions require two things.
- Determination by participating countries
- Time
Currently, the US is beginning to get a grasp around the first requirement. The recent sanctions are a bit tougher and other countries have a limited amount of time to deal with Iran. Some people are misunderstanding "success" with the use of sanctions. For example, people expect that regime change will occur, and a government friendly to the US will rise. Don't get me wrong, this is possible, but the chances aren't to favorable. Only 23% of US economic sanctions since 1973 have caused actions this extreme. In my opinion, sanctions are considered successful if they force a country to rethink its actions. How do we force Iran to rethink its actions without dropping a JDAM on their ICA? How about we mess with their economy. US sanctions since 1973 have caused the "victim" country to suffer a 2.4% loss in the GDP-equivalent to a depression. Not only will their economy be harmed, but development will be substantially hindered (in Iran, this is important, as they are trying to develop commerce centers by the Caspian).
Look at it from the Iranian's point of view. In their perspective, the nuclear program is an investment. With economic sanctions in the way, their investment will tank.
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