Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
Yes, every insurgency manifests uniquely based on all of the many factors at work. But they all involve people, and they all involve some group that is grossly dissatisfied with their current lot under the current government; and there are indeed commonalities in that fact. I'm sure I don't have it exactly right, but I am equally sure I am digging in the right location.
I also think you're digging in the right direction, but there are some roots in the hole. For one... I think it's true that insurgency is almost always based on popular dissatisfaction and popular perceptions of bad governance. It would be a huge mistake, though, to assume that any given insurgent group or set of insurgent leaders represents popular aspirations, that their agendas have anything to do with the will of the people, that their leaders have the interests of the people in mind, or that they negotiate (if they do) on behalf of the people. More often insurgent leaders are trying to leverage popular anger to support their own agendas and their own desire for power.

In these cases addressing the governance issues may remove the incentive to fight and gradually erode the support base and rank-and-file fighter base of the insurgency. It will not convince leaders to modify their demands or agendas, because all the leaders want is power, not something easily compromised.

The case of Sri Lanka appears to represent something analogous to what we've seen several times in the Philippines: defeating an insurgent group does not eliminate the causes of insurgency, but it does open a window of opportunity for government to step in and produce some results, a window that probably cannot be opened any other way. If the government fails to exploit that window, more fighting is likely down the line, as has always been the case in the Philippines.

Military victory in these cases should not be seen as an end in itself, but rather as a necessary means to an end. It doesn't resolve the issues, but it creates space that government can exploit to achieve resolution. If government fails... back on the wheel, and the losers, as always, are the people.