Quote Originally Posted by Rex Brynen View Post
All you have to do is read the UNSCOM reports. By January 1991 Iraq had developed a number of BW missile warheads, and UN weapons inspectors themselves oversaw the destruction of 30 missile CW warheads, as well as 690 tons of CW agent.
Well quite simply put they would have run the risk of US retaliation had the fired such weapon at that stage. In addition there is some doubt as to whether the fusing mechanism for CW scuds had been perfected. Nice try though.

This is well documented, and I've discussed it with both Israeli and US officials. Have you?
Oh I am impressed. But I suppose I will have to wait until the truth comes out.

I realize that you are restricted to open sources, but even then it isn't terribly hard:

1) Look up the estimated size of Israeli nuclear arsenal.
2) Regarding those that may be based upon its Dolphin fleet, make the usual assumptions about the number at sea at any moment. Iranian ASW capability is negligible, so you can ignore that.
3) Make reasonable assumptions about the hardening of Jericho II missile silos (if you want to spend the time, you can even find them on Google Earth). Determine the likely psi overpressures require to destroy them. If you want to give the Iranians the benefit of the doubt, ignore BMD and missile fratricide. Make reasonable assumptions about the probable warhead yields and CEPs of future Iranian missile systems. Calculate the probable number of surviving Jericho missiles.
4) Do the same for Israeli F-16 and F15 bases, as well as the Dolphin sub base.
5) If you do the math and determine the number of surviving Israeli nukes, you'll see that if Iran were somehow to develop a handful of weapons in the next 10 years, it would not pose much of a counterforce challenge to Israel's second strike retaliatory capability.
Again I am so impressed. But that is not what I am talking about. I am talking about what will be left of Israel after a nuclear first strike. Waiting for that first strike doesn't seem like a good deal to me and don't see any indication that those who matter in Israel believe any different.

OK so lets hear it from the smart guys as to what the scale of Israeli (civilian/military) casualties will be during a first strike? Add to that the collateral damage to Palestinians and assorted others in the area or downwind. And some smart guy is going to convince Israel that this would be an acceptable loss? (The technique that would have to be used would be very similar to that used to obtain volunteers for suicide bombers.)

Actually, I know quite a bit about those strikes. As Entropy pointed out, the first actually led Iraq to augment its nuclear program. The second was an easy, single target without any local SAM or AAA defences.
I'm impressed, so you know all about that too. But may I draw you back to the point... and that was that Israel demonstrated a willingness to conduct such preemptive strikes twice before. That's the point I was making... so if you want to comment please tell me what has changed in that they may be less likely now to consider such a strike now?

As for Israel striking Iran, I haven't said they won't do it. Indeed, I think there is a significant chance they will. I'm merely trying to shift some of the discussion from undisciplined armchair speculation to the facts (in as much as they are known and can be discussed here). There is a certain amount of intellectual rigour required for effective diplomatic and intelligence analysis--the "pray and spray" approach of throwing out provocative and unsupported statements and merely hoping for the best really isn't very productive.
OK so you tell us you are an "insider" and know what is what... and all have to just take your word for it. They real McCoy stuff will be on a strictly "need to know" basis and just how you would be on this need to know basis I can't tell.

My personal view is that Iran should be prevented from developing a nuclear weapon. That's my personal view.

The indications are that Israel will do it on its own if 1) (as is increasingly likely) the sanctions regime fails, or 2) the US doesn't do it either alone or with them.

Whether the US does it or doesn't I can't say. Personally I don't think Obama has the balls for it even though the US military will be able to achieve that quite simply. So its a political call... as these things always are.