View Poll Results: What is the near-term future of the DPRK

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  • It will fall into chaos as a result of renewed famine and poverty, resulting in military crackdowns.

    3 15.79%
  • There will be a military coup that displaces the current leadership, hopefully soon.

    4 21.05%
  • It will continue to remain a closed society, technologically dormant and otherwise insignificant.

    12 63.16%
  • The leadership will eventually make a misstep, forcing military action from the United States.

    0 0%
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Thread: North Korea: 2012-2016

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  1. #11
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tukhachevskii View Post
    Sure, but the problem is "how much is enough" and how do you manage enemy perceptions sothat a withdrawal of ground troops/lessening of a commitment isn't seen as a sign of weakness... IMO The US would be better off grooming a replacement (or a Jap-Korean alliance aimed at China) to replace its own position and retreat back into speldid isolation (of the Monroe variety).

    Re: the DPRK I agree that a conventional attack is not on the cards (I doubt even the KPA is well-fed enough to march across the border); what people fear more is the collapse of the regime and the resultant mess.
    If the DPRK hasn't the capacity to mount a conventional attack, to whom are we showing strength by keeping all of those ground forces in place?

    China may not be an ally or a friend, but I think it's long past time to stop seeing them as an enemy. Just one more state pursuing their own perceived interests, as states are wont to do. China has huge internal vulnerabilities and has immense pressure to keep trade flowing and the economy growing, war would carry far more risk than gain for them... at least under the status quo. Instead of trying to build an alliance "aimed at China", why not look toward an East Asian security arrangement aimed at peaceful resolution of disputes and keeping trade routes secure... one that would include China?

    Certainly there are grounds for conflict between China and the US and/or other Asian countries, but there are many common interests as well.
    Last edited by Dayuhan; 09-21-2010 at 11:47 PM.

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