Quote Originally Posted by Tukhachevskii View Post
Ultimately, the states of N.E. Asia do have a common interest in peace and prosperity in the region but national interests can only be harmonised on the basis of some kind of equality between members, otherwise its just an alliance or a bandwagoning syatem. Would China really feel happ to be one among equals or would she simply interpret that according to her "victim" thesis/narrative (colonialism, Imperialism, etc.: and Japan takes centre stage followed by the US when it comes to Beijing's/ChiCom victimology) and see it as an attempt to restrict her emergence into weltmacht status? I think the latter, she would rather be primus inter pares than simply pares...
The US has sought and achieved primus inter pares status in enough organizations that it might be just a wee bit hypocritical to object to anyone else holding it! Of course such an organization wouldn't solve all problems; it might be of use... which is all one expects of such organizations in any event.

The Chinese "victim thesis" has some substance to it, which is why it remains a potent narrative. Of course the series of catastrophes that China endured from the Opium Wars to the Cultural Revolution cannot reasonably be blamed entirely on foreign intervention, but it will inevitably be noted that they did coincide with the period of weak central government and extensive foreign intervention.

I think where some people go off the rails in observing Asia is in trying to impose a cold-war-europe paradigm, with China as the focal evil empire villain enemy that must be contained and deterred. I don't think the comparison is at all valid. For one thing, China (unlike the Soviet Union of yore) is a trade-dependent power, deeply engaged with the regional and global economies and deeply reliant on imports and exports. It's also a very successful power under the current order, with a great deal to risk from rocking the boat. The Chinese know (as those who observe China should) that the main (only, really) threat to their security is internal, and they are deeply concerned with that threat... but the assumption that China is about to boil over into an attack on Taiwan and/or an attempt to conquer the South China Sea seems quite wildly overstated to me (and I live on the perimeter of the South China Sea).

Of course those who feel bereft without someone to fear will tend to focus on China, but I see no reason to obsess over it. Relations with China will have to be managed and there will be some complexities in the management; it's not an apocalyptic scenario.