North Korea: 2012-2016

[Dayuhan]

The following article from Al Jazeera has a similar take on the China-Japan stand-off as I do. I take no joy in the proof that my position is not a lone voice in the wilderness but continue to be saddened that so many people for one reason or the other were unable to accurately read the situation as it developed.

Of course there will always be people who want to blow these things out of proportion and make more of them what we are. It’s a specialty among some quarters of the media. You’ll also find some voices of horror raised on the remote fringes of the American far right, where the demise of the reds has led a few to seek their fear fix from the yellow peril. You might even find a few singing the same tune in East Asia, where the China peril is periodically raised by those seeking to beat the nationalist drum or divert attention from their own ineptitude. None of this makes the incidents in question anything but what they are: one more passing round in an essentially meaningless long-running charade.

Following on with the same train of thought you will then recognise the term death by a thousand cuts (which I have used before) as an ancient form of Chinese torture. This I submit is how China is flexing its muscles in the region and in the world. One "cut" at a time. Nothing to get worried about some will say but the progress will be sure... and by the time they wake up it will be too late.

The problem with this formulation is that nobody’s been cut, even once. Nobody’s interests have been sacrificed, nobody’s lost anything. The incidents in question will be quickly forgotten and the status quo ante resumed. The worst anyone could have suffered would be a transient ego bruise, but nobody dies of those, even with a thousand or more of them.

It’s important to realize that these fishing boat intrusions happen al the time… as in every day. Most of the time they’re ignored. When someone feels it’s getting out of hand or they want to make a point, they round up a boat, threaten prosecution, everybody bristles a bit, and the crews and boats are released (nobody really wants to prosecute these guys, waste of time and money). The apprehending party lays down a marker by showing that they can and will apprehend, the other party lays down a counter marker by getting their boat and people back, everyone goes back to business as usual and by and by it happens again. Been that way for ages. At the end of the day nobody has won or lost anything and nobody’s been hurt in any material way.

The US declaring neutrality over the status of the islands is by no means wise. As can be seen it has left the door wide open for China to exploit by the creation of a confrontation as is now happening. Not wise... but rather a demonstration of diplomatic ineptitude.

How are these islands a concern to the US, and what would the US gain from trying to insert itself into that dispute? Silly, really, we’ve enough problems of our own without pushing ourselves into other people’s arguments.

The only real gainers from China/US tension are the North Koreans, who would love to see the two parties facing off with each other, over anything. Of course when the meaningless bluster bouts are done the US and China will generally line up on the same side on the North Korea issue, simply because their interests in that situation are quite close together. Strange bedfellows maybe, but politics is known to make ‘em.