The future geopolitical environment is a crucial consideration and quite a bit has been written by theorists, historians and analysts of globalization, not to mention by IR types at Foreign affairs and CFR.

The future of conflict hypothesized by William Lind, John Robb, Martin van Creveld, Thomas X. Hammes, John Arquilla, Chet Richards is far darker and more decentralized than what is suggested by Thomas Barnett or (further afield) Thomas Friedman. The NIC 2020 -Mapping the Global Future papers make an interesting read, as does the older "Unrestricted Warfare" paper by two PLA colonels. Many, perhaps most, SWC members have already read some or all of these.

What would I look for in trying to game out trends ?

Platforms - what broad based, IT or other tech currently under development or entering the market today is going to have the largest global systemic effects ? Here you will find the capacity for superempowerment of individuals or small cells.

Demographics - It isn't destiny but it counts. China is huge but is going to age more rapidly than any just about any other great power. Russia is well below replacement numbers. The level of AIDS infection in subsaharan Africa is pandemic.

Economic flows - At a certain magnitude of economic interrelationship is a weight against escalation of overt conflict. A market specialist I know who teaches at DePaul U. referred to the current state of Sino-American trade as "golden handcuffs" for both parties.

Nation-state Devolution/Evolution - As a class of actors, are nation-states devolving power in a controlled fashion to loyal networks (privatization, subnational autonomy, loyalist paramilitaries, PMC's), uncontrolled fashion (failed state) or integrating upward (transnationalism). Are we due for a counterrevolution in favor of the nation-state that will take everyone by surprise ?

Multidimensionality of Power - the traditional, realpolitik, understanding of geopolitics is inadequate for understanding the actual state of geopolitics. The more interconnected the global system, the greater the incentives will be to act indirectly in order to avoid the consequences that open conflict will bring in terms of "blowback"