Steve, while I tend to disagree with your formulation of insuregency as a strategy, that is, of course, your right. If it is useful for you to see it in those terms, have at it. As always, I am intrigued to see what you come up with.

Bob, I would modify your definition to read Regime (in the technical IR sense of a set of rules governing a system) instead of governing body. this would meet the objection that insurgency cannot be a global phenomenon without doing damage to the notion that it is usually a national one.

Regarding your causal varables: While I have no problem with them they ar all intellectually linked to legitimacy. In our quantitative analysis back in the 80s all of these ideas clustered under the Factor that we later labelled Legitimacy. In this sense, then, all insurgencies are conflicts over legitimacy.

Cheers

JohnT