Quote Originally Posted by gute View Post
The big plane is to replace the F-16 and A-10 with the F-35 (as well as the Marine Harrier and older model Marine and Navy F-18A/B/C models). Most are aware of the cost overruns (yes, it's true) and issues with the engine.
The issues are mainly with a second engine the DoD doesn't want, but Congress plans to give them anyway. Whether the services can get by with legacy aircraft is irrelevant at this point - all the eggs are in the F-35 basket for better or worse.

Question: Is it realistic to build a smaller F-22 to replace the F-16?
Given the incompetence of the procurement/development system, a "smaller" F-22 is going to add significant development costs. If push comes to shove, better to buy an existing aircraft.

Question: It it possible to replace Harriers with VTOL CAS UCAVs?
Sure it's possible, but that will require a whole new development program. Can we keep the harriers going until then? Can we afford the expense of a new weapons system of a design that's never been done before?

Question: Should the production of the F-22 (possible FB-22 variants) end at 183 or continue to 381 air frames?
That's already been decided - the production line is shutting down. Most of the parts for the last run of aircraft are being made right now. The final delivery is only a year away. There's no indication that Congress or the President have any interest in changing that.

Also, one can't ignore the politics of this. Sure, it's technically feasible to buy more existing legacy aircraft, but Congress likes the jobs and preserving the industrial base.

Plus, when you look at it, legacy aircraft aren't that much cheaper (of course, we don't really know what the F-35 is going to cost yet). For example, the latest and greatest F-15 (Silent Eagle) is estimated at about $100 million per aircraft while an F-22 is about $135 million. The latest estimates for the F-35 put the unit cost at the same price - and the F-35 was supposed to be the "cheap" plane.

The F-22 is more expensive than a new F-15 but bests the F-15 is almost every respect. Whether that additional capability is worth an $35 million premium is a judgment call, but the point is that "legacy" aircraft aren't as cheap as commonly believed.

The newest F-16's run about $60 million - or less than half of what an F-35 is projected to cost. Plus, the F-35's superiority to the F-16 isn't as definitive. Is it worth it? Again a judgment call. I was dubious about canceling the F-22 program for this reason. Considering the F-35 now costs as much as an F-22, it probably would have been better to keep the F-22 and cancel the F-35 in favor of upgraded legacy aircraft. Problem is that the F-35 program is too big to fail at this point.