For what it's worth, I see the insurgency in Afghanistan as breaking into two tiers. The Quetta Shura led, political, ideological revolutionary leadership tier (that is best addressed through reconciliation efforts); and the rank and file, mom and pop, apolitical resistance movement among the people of rural Afghanistan that the bulk of our POP-centric COIN is aimed at. These guys are also paid and motivated by Taliban leadership that comes in from Pakistan, and picks them up once the poppy harvest is in just like contractors picking up illegals outside the Home Depot to do a little cheap labor for them.

Key to victory lies in reconciliation, but Karzai is safe so long as we are committed to protecting him, so why should he do more than just talk on this topic? We need to force the issue.