‘Small war’ in Korea is postponed

Entry Excerpt:

Today, South Korean marines proceeded with an artillery training exercise on Yeonpyeong Island. Instead of delivering “brutal consequences beyond imagination” if the exercise went ahead, the North Korean government instead concluded that it was “not worth reacting” to the 94-minute drill.

South Korea called the North’s bluff and the North folded its hand, at least for now. The South boosted its leverage in several ways. First, it evacuated civilians on the island and in other forward locations. Second, it waited for clear weather and put F-15 fighter-bombers in the air, presumably in preparation for counter-battery strikes against North Korean artillery positions. Finally, about 20 U.S. soldiers participated in the exercise as observes, or more accurately as “trip-wires” for a U.S. retaliatory response against the North. The North’s leaders likely concluded that in this case they did not possess escalation dominance. The North has exposed itself as a bluffer and will have to run much greater risks in the future to reestablish its reputation for ferocity.

This weekend’s drama was a breakthrough for the South Korean government.

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