In 1995 there was not a half-credible conventional force, but in 1989 there was and that force was defeated. Your statement "with a bit of support from the west" is key. I am convinced there won't be critical support from the west. We left the ARVN in a position to hold off the enemy with a bit of critical support and we didn't give it to them. If we bug out this time, after doing so we will convince ourselves that the morally superior position will be to hold ourselves above the fray and we won't give them a dime.
Like the NVA officer said, it doesn't matter if we can beat the Taliban militarily. They maybe are winning despite that, without massing. We are far more tactically proficient. But that doesn't matter because determination and patience seem to be serving them quite well. And they are still on the field, having taken everything we can throw at them.
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