Quote Originally Posted by Infanteer View Post
Absolutely; although the ANA cannot really hold down the more unruly areas of the Pashtun belt, the ANA do have quality formations that would, with a bit of support from the west, likely hold off an insurgent surge a la 1995. A half-credible conventional force is a factor that wasn't in play during the last round of civil war.

As well, I take issue with the statement that "the Taliban have taken everything we can throw at them"; it implies that we cannot defeat them militarily. If they mass, which they must do to affect anything meaningful, we do beat them. Now they don't mass because they know that they will be beaten. The insurgents have dropped down a notch or two in activity and stay below a certain threshold; let's not confuse this determination and patience as some sort of tactical proficiency.
In 1995 there was not a half-credible conventional force, but in 1989 there was and that force was defeated. Your statement "with a bit of support from the west" is key. I am convinced there won't be critical support from the west. We left the ARVN in a position to hold off the enemy with a bit of critical support and we didn't give it to them. If we bug out this time, after doing so we will convince ourselves that the morally superior position will be to hold ourselves above the fray and we won't give them a dime.

Like the NVA officer said, it doesn't matter if we can beat the Taliban militarily. They maybe are winning despite that, without massing. We are far more tactically proficient. But that doesn't matter because determination and patience seem to be serving them quite well. And they are still on the field, having taken everything we can throw at them.