Insurgency is illegal politics.
Who I, or any non-Afghan citizen, thinks is legitimate is moot. The question that must be asked is "Does the Pashtun populace see the Taliban as legitimate." Indicators are that more and more the answer to that question is "Yes."
Personally, I do not care who the Afghan people select or even allow (if not given the chance to select) to govern them. That is their business. If allowed legal venues of politics to weigh in on such matters, they will employ them. If denied legal venues to weigh in on such matters, they will opt for illegal ones.
Given the design of the current Afghan constitution; given the manner in which Karzai came to power; given the presence of a foreign coalition dedicated to the preservation of the Karzai government, insurgency is not only natural, it is inevitable. The Taliban are just the flavor of the day stepping up to lead that illegal challenge. If the Taliban were destroyed by some miracle tomorrow, some new group would soon emerge from this same base of the populace to continue the challenge.
This is what FM 3-24 fails to make clear: Insurgents do not start insurgencies, governments do.
Good COIN is not about protecting the populace from the insurgent alone, but also must protect the populace from the government.
Who is protecting the populace of Afghanistan from the government of Afghanistan?? Certainly we are not, as we enable that government's existence.
Who is protecting the populace of Yemen from the government of Yemen??
or
Who is protecting the populace of Egypt from the government of Egypt??
or
Who is protecting the populace of Saudi Arabia from the government of Saudi Arabia??
In the U.S. we are protected from our government by our constitution, and the military then in turn, protects the constitution. In too many other places the military merely protects the government itself.
We enable many governments to stay in power with little concern of consequences from popular challenges. Legal venues are either corrupted beyond credibility, or simply do not exist. Illegal challengers are labeled as "terrorists" and we praise or even assist such government when they act efficiently to suppress such movements.
We never learn. And by "we" I mean whoever the powerful external party is that exerts its influence over an area in order to serve their own interests.
I was channel surfing a couple days ago and ran across the movie "Gandhi." At one point in the film a frustrated British official challenged Gandhi's efforts, praising the great effectiveness of British government and how that if the British left it would be chaos under Hindu and/or Muslim rule. Gandhi replied "any government of our own choosing no matter how flawed is better than any government forced upon us, no matter how good." This is a generally understood concept of COIN, Lawrence essentially said the same thing in "Seven Pillars."
Then yesterday I am re-reading Delveccio's Vietnam classic "The 13th Valley." In a scene early in the book a few of the guys (Egan the savvy Plt Sgt; Doc the smart, radical black NCO; Cherry, the college educated new guy and some guys from BDE) are smoking a little dope prior to going into the valley the following morning. Le Huu Minh, the company's Vietnamese scout and interpreter says:
"It is time for you all to go," Minh said from the far end of the bar.
"Yeah, I think so too, " George (a BDE guy whose hooch they are in) said. "It's three-twenty. What the F are you guys doing in my AO at three-twenty?"
"No," Minh said. "I mean it is time you all leave my country and let us work out our separate peace."
"Minh," Egan said, "you know, if we were all to leave, even if we negotiate a separate peace, that won't mean peace for your country."
George mumbled, "That's like oh three-hundred and twenty."
"That is true," Minh said. "But my friend Egan, then the war will be a Vietnamese war and not an American war. Your money is too much and now I do not recognize my own home. Your President must have you leave."
This is a lesson that while obviously not learned over and over; is certainly taught over and over.
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