Quote Originally Posted by M-A Lagrange View Post
Would be long to put all the references, especially as most material I have is in French but let say things do not look good.

1) Bagbo asked the UN and French troops to leave,
2) Outara asked the Un to stay
3) UN responded positively to Outara demand
4) French and German governments advised their citizen to leave Ivory Cost
5) Bagbo declared he will fight up to the last cartridge to liberate Ivory Cost…
6) US and UN confirmed that Bagbo sent his death squad and killed over 200 people since in power.
7) 14000 Ivorian fled Ivory Coast to Liberia according to UNHCR

What next?
Civil war restarts or a foreign military intervention to install Outara in power?
That’s the 2 worst case scenarios ever, for Ivory Coast and for the whole continent.

What’s happening in Ivory Coast is important for sub Saharan Africa because it can open the road to a new African model based on legality and freedom of the people to choose their future. Or it can be the final grave of any changes on that continent.
This is all predictable. A quick timeline.

Arising from the Kenyan presidential election, 2007 incumbent president Kibaki fiddles the election enough to hang onto power as president while Odinga gets offered the post of Prime Minister (and maybe a Swiss bank account) to shut him up.

Mugabe likes this idea. Zimbabwe 2008 - the incumbent president Mugabe fiddles the election and (supported by the military) refuses to stand down. Following the Kenyan example he negotiates a settlement where he and his miklitary thugs retain power while MDC-T's Tsvangirai is offered the post of Prime Minister (and maybe a Swiss bank account) to shut him up.

Now we have Ivory Coast and now following the familiar fashion (like out of Don McLeans American Pie) "the marching band refused to yield" ... but (surprise surprise) the incumbent president says he is willing to negotiate - sound familiar?

Not sure the threat of military force by ECOWAS will achieve anything more than even more chaos and the normal raping, looting and pillaging (Remember Sierra Leone and Liberia.

It is time to stop pussy-footing around and apply JMA's 3-Cruise-Missile-Option.

With some sections of the army wavering (it appears) the first missile targets the barracks of the most loyal unit to Gbagbo - do it now, tomorrow.

The second with 12 hours warning targets the current location of Gbagbo himself - he won't be there but will get the message strength 5.

Thereafter the word is put out that there's a $1m for the person who provides Gbagbo's location as a target for the third missile.

I think you will find Gbagbo will agree to discussing the terms of his handing over power to the elected president. This could also act as a rehearsal for the upcoming Zimbabwe elections - those are bound to be a lot of fun too.