Venezuela, Iran & others: a coalition? (New title)

[AdamG]

AdamG,Given the capacity of US intelligence, why has this not been noted before and placed in the public domain? If it has been noted, but not placed in the public domain - ponder that.
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Assuming the source was US intelligence.

Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon warned Monday that Iran's ties with Venezuela posed a threat to the entire world, and in particular the United States.

"Venezuela is Iran’s advance outpost on the Latin American continent. The two countries have joined together to create an axis of conventional and nuclear terror [that threatens] not only the Middle East, but also the continent of America, and the United States in particular," Ayalon told a group of some two dozen journalists from Latin American countries.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomac...world-1.330419

*

DFM Ayalon: A nuclear Iran will lead to a nuclear Venezuela right in the United States’ backyard

http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/About+the+...3_Dec_2010.htm

[Entropy]

Ok, some points to consider:

1. LOS distance from the northernmost point of Venezuela to the closest major American city (Miami) is about 1800km.
   
2. Currently, there is no operational Iranian missile with the reach to hit Miami from Venezuela. The Sajjil-2, which a range of 2200km, may be operational in a couple of years.
   
3. It's possible Iran may develop a 3700km range missile within the next ten years. Assuming such a missile is launched from the northern-most point in Venezuela, every city in an arc from Maine to Detroit and down to San Antonio could be hit. At this point, such a missile is completely theoretical.
   
4. It's important to note that the intelligence community and ballistic missile experts consistently overestimate the development timelines for foreign ballistic missiles. Politically-motivated estimates, like the 1998 Rumsfeld Commission, have an even worse track record.

Let's assume the stars align and Iran not only develops a deliverable nuclear weapon, but also a delivery vehicle of at least 3000km sometime in the next decade, which is probably optimistic. We then have to assume that Iran is willing to essentially give these rare and extremely valuable golden eggs to Venezuela and that Venezuela would be willing to accept them. In order to make this happen, both countries would have to explicitly violate a host of treaties. For example, Venezuela has ratified the Treaty of Tlatelolco.

Could it happen? Sure, anything is possible and we should certainly monitor developments closely to provide warning and opportunity to prevent such a development. However, the whole idea, at this point, seems rather far-fetched to me - a tremendous risk for both countries for little benefit.

It's more likely, in my view, that this is a combination of Iranian and Venezuelan political grandstanding along with the worst-casing that Israel is famous for.

[Ken White]

...anything is possible and we should certainly monitor developments closely to provide warning and opportunity to prevent such a development. However, the whole idea, at this point, seems rather far-fetched to me...
It's more likely, in my view, that this is a combination of Iranian and Venezuelan political grandstanding along with the worst-casing that Israel is famous for.

Yes, Or wildly wishful thinking (dreaming?) on the part of the first two and and effort to get the big guy on side from the latter...

I never cease to be amazed at the dotty things that seem to get people unduly excited.

[AdamG]

Ok, some points to consider:

[LIST=1][*]LOS distance from the northernmost point of Venezuela to the closest major American city (Miami) is about 1800km.

Let's assume the stars align and Iran not only develops a deliverable nuclear weapon,

Just to be the Devil's Advocate, why assume 1) a land launch and 2) a nuclear weapon?

http://defensetech.org/2009/02/04/ir...an-emp-weapon/

[Entropy]

Just to be the Devil's Advocate, why assume 1) a land launch and 2) a nuclear weapon?

http://defensetech.org/2009/02/04/ir...an-emp-weapon/

Assuming Iran's ballistic missiles could be modified to launch from a sea platform, then what is the purpose of Iranian missile bases in Venezuela?

Secondly, using a nuke for a high-altitude EMP burst isn't such a great strategy unless it's followed up with something else. What are the Iranian's going to do afterward, besides get their asses handed to them? Under what circumstances would they be willing to light off a nuke above the US instead of on the US?

Then there are the practical issues of launching a ballistic missile from a pitching ship, transporting missile and nuke from Iran to the US littoral without getting intercepted, ensuring the missile will operate after exposure to a marine environment, etc.

Again, it's theoretically possible and we should always keep a close eye on the Iranians, but the risk-reward calculation for attempting something like that isn't a favorable one in my opinion.

[AdamG]

Assuming Iran's ballistic missiles could be modified to launch from a sea platform, then what is the purpose of Iranian missile bases in Venezuela?

Gotta do training, storage and logistics somewhere. The missile(s) don't care where they're launched.

Secondly, using a nuke for a high-altitude EMP burst isn't such a great strategy unless it's followed up with something else. What are the Iranian's going to do afterward, besides get their asses handed to them? Under what circumstances would they be willing to light off a nuke above the US instead of on the US?

You're assuming you need a nuke to generate a city-crippling EMP burst. I've read otherwise. See http://science.howstuffworks.com/e-bomb3.htm

Then there are the practical issues of launching a ballistic missile from a pitching ship, transporting missile and nuke from Iran to the US littoral without getting intercepted, ensuring the missile will operate after exposure to a marine environment, etc.

Reference ship-launched ballistic /SCUD missile launches, I've read otherwise.
See http://www.missilethreat.com/scenarios/

Again, it's theoretically possible and we should always keep a close eye on the Iranians, but the risk-reward calculation for attempting something like that isn't a favorable one in my opinion.

You're assuming rational thought amongst our opponents. That can be fatal.
(Or, as Foamy the Squirrel said : "It wouldn't hurt you people to think like a serial killer every now and then...")
See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8eICCKMNEc

[Entropy]

You're assuming you need a nuke to generate a city-crippling EMP burst. I've read otherwise. See http://science.howstuffworks.com/e-bomb3.htm

Theoretically yes. A lot of things are theoretically possible. Until I see some evidence that someone, especially the Iranians, are developing such a weapon then I'm not going to worry about it too much. Not only that, but why would Iran EMP a US city? Under what scenario or circumstances would the Iranians, or anyone else, use such a weapon? They burn out some electronics and then what?

Reference ship-launched ballistic /SCUD missile launches, I've read otherwise.
See http://www.missilethreat.com/scenarios/

Has anyone, anywhere actually tried to launch a scud off a ship? This is another case of something that is possible in theory, very difficult in practice and of limited utility. This isn't a capability that could be done without testing - when I see Iran or any other nation start trying to launch ballistic missiles off of freighters, then I will begin to take this "theat" seriously.

You're assuming rational thought amongst our opponents. That can be fatal.
(Or, as Foamy the Squirrel said : "It wouldn't hurt you people to think like a serial killer every now and then...")
See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8eICCKMNEc

We had over 30 years to watch and study the current Iranian government. I don't see much there that suggests the Iranians are irrational actors.

[AdamG]

From 2008

In testimony before the House Armed Services Committee and in remarks to a private conference on missile defense over the weekend hosted by the Claremont Institute, Dr. William Graham warned that the U.S. intelligence community “doesn’t have a story” to explain the recent Iranian tests.

One group of tests that troubled Graham, the former White House science adviser under President Ronald Reagan, were successful efforts to launch a Scud missile from a platform in the Caspian Sea.

“They’ve got [test] ranges in Iran which are more than long enough to handle Scud launches and even Shahab-3 launches,” Dr. Graham said. “Why would they be launching from the surface of the Caspian Sea? They obviously have not explained that to us.”

Another troubling group of tests involved Shahab-3 launches where the Iranians "detonated the warhead near apogee, not over the target area where the thing would eventually land, but at altitude,” Graham said. “Why would they do that?”

http://www.marketwatch.com/Community...-plans-nuclear

Iran is only half the equation, and a weak half at that - more of an enabler.
Tehran can interdict the flow of Saudi oil, and Venezuela is next up by volume on the suppliers' list.

ANALYSIS | In a reciprocal action, the United States has revoked the visa of the Venezuelan ambassador to the United States after Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez refused to acknowledge diplomatic ties with the United States. Business Week reports this expulsion is just the latest in many bouts of political feuding between the United States and Venezuela.

Business Week reports Chavez threatened to cut off the oil supply to the United States in 2008 and then backed down. It was around the same time when he backed a Bolivian proposal to expel their American ambassador for alleging the United States' involvement with rebel groups.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ac/20101230/...es_may_be_next