Egypt's Spring Revolution (2011-2013)

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It just hit me: I can probably post the abstracts of the two articles without running afoul of any copyright issues (apologies in advance if I am wrong).

The Armed Forces and Transitions from Authoritarian Rule
Explaining the Role of the Military in 1986 Philippines and 1998 Indonesia
Terence Lee
National University of Singapore
http://cps.sagepub.com/content/42/5/640.abstract

Studies of transitions from authoritarian rule have shown that militaries play decisive roles in authoritarian breakdowns. The military possesses coercive resources that can suppress any challenge to authoritarian rule. This article explains why and under what conditions militaries in authoritarian regimes, when faced with popular demonstrations, will support the path of political liberalization. The study argues that armed forces are likely to back transitions from authoritarianism when there is intense conflict within the military; and arising from these contestations, marginalized officers (losers) either enter into a pact with the domestic opposition or have foreign support to act against the regime. The losers' decision to turn against authoritarianism is a move to eliminate the regime and their rivals within the armed forces. The author illustrates this argument in the February 1986 Philippines People Power revolution and May 1998 collapse of Indonesia's President Suharto's regime.

Military Cohesion and Regime Maintenance
Explaining the Role of the Military in 1989 China and 1998 Indonesia
Terence Lee
University of Washington
http://afs.sagepub.com/content/32/1/80.abstract

Why are certain militaries in authoritarian regimes more effective in carrying out the task of regime maintenance than others? This is the central question of this article, which explains the Chinese and Indonesian militaries’differing responses to government orders to suppress the Tiananmen Square demonstrations of 1989 and the protests prior to the downfall of Indonesian President Suharto in 1998. The article argues that the varying level of effectiveness in dealing with protestors is attributable to how governments employ institutional controls or “stick” mechanisms and the effect these controls have on military organizational cohesion. Specifically, the article notes that the efficacy of a regime's institutional controls does not just center on having mechanisms to monitor, prevent, and punish malfeasance within the military. Instead, militaries are likely to be successful in suppressing demonstrations if authoritarian leaders do not implement policies that undermine the organizational integrity of the armed forces.

Regards
OC