As with many of these types of issues, one must look deeply into Venezuelan domestic politics and its 'idiosyncrasies' before worrying about anything regional or global.

HG is extremely paranoid and is building a regime to protect him and his disciples, nothing more. The regime is so corrupt and incompetent they cannot manage the economy and are slowly but surely strangling themselves and turning the clock back so that Vz can resemble the USSR and poverty-stricken Cuba.

Remember also, Cuba is the strategic model here; Chavez does not want educated classes in 'his' Vz and only wants a subserviant, ignorant population that has, and is, bought off with state subsidies and other welfare-esque bribes.

The real threat here is to Colombia. HG supports the FARC and the chances of his govt. selling sophisticated weaponry to these terrorists poses a threat to the Colombian state. This is more critcial now that Santos is in charge and the Colombians are clearly winning the war.

Soviet and Iranian weaponry will just rust on Venezuelan tarmacs, but small arms and assorted infantry type weapons can be used far more effectively and immediately.

Chavez is a coward; this has been proven in his previous coup in 2002 when he refused to fight it out with the Vz armed foces; he always backs down from fights that he starts; he does not have the stomach for war, only the ego.