Yemen - a catch all thread for 2007-2011

[davidbfpo]

I missed this Chatham House briefing paper on the Yemen, updated in January 2010:http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files...p0110yemen.pdf and the author is Ginny Hill - who appeared earlier in this thread.

The much heralded international conference on the Yemen, held in London on the 28th January 2010:

lasting barely two hours

is a reminder how "spin" and diplomacy can falter. In closing the BBC report remarked:

The international interest is there, at least for now, but the Yemeni government will have to deliver on its own reform plans if it is to secure the sustained international help that it so badly needs.

Link:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8484224.stm

Some Arab press editorials on:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8485222.stm

Perhaps now the post-Detroit fuss has abated, with serious though devoted to the options, we shall let a "low profile" external role continue and hope the Yemeni's decide themselves what to do.

[davidbfpo]

From the BBC:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/8511705.stm

The Yemeni authorities have announced a ceasefire with Shia rebels fighting government forces in the north. The truce is to start at midnight local time (2100 GMT) and comes after days of negotiations between the government and rebels on how to end the conflict.

[davidbfpo]

From FP a week ago:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...inutes_of_fame

Remember Yemen? For a few short weeks this winter, after the Yemen-trained Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab tried (and failed) to blow up a commercial airliner in Detroit, the troubled country found itself under a rare media spotlight. Journalists descended on the capital, Sanaa; pundits offered advice for fighting al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and ending Yemen's two insurgencies. Congress called hearings. Yemen's foreign minister, Abu Bakr al-Qirbi, was a regular guest on international news networks.

The country was the new Afghanistan, many said, the latest worrisome safe haven for al Qaeda and its affiliates. U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman declared it "tomorrow's war." And now: nothing....

The lack of attention now is unfortunate because -- despite the media's silence -- quite a bit has happened in Yemen over the last few weeks.

For those who watch Yemen worth checking this IMHO.

[Tukhachevskii]

Osama bin Laden's former body-guard, Nasir Al-Bahri now residing in Yemen, on being de-radicalised/re-educated (whatever that is), how he wishes he was still back with his boss (wherever he may be), how he would like to work for the US government and seeks its destruction (because, President Saleh is untrustworthy).

[davidbfpo]

A commentary on the Yemen by IISS: within the careful wording are some direct, polite comments:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...ign-relations/

Second paragraph:

During over three decades in power – as president of the Yemen Arab Republic from 1978 until 1990, and as president of the unified Republic of Yemen from 1990 onwards – Salih has displayed a propensity for ruthlessness and manipulation. He has made sure that there are no alternative leaders in the wings or contenders for central power, drawing leverage from his critics’ acknowledgement that dissension around the leadership would benefit only those who favour an even weaker centre. Yet the state itself is under severe pressure and at risk of crumbling.

Near the end:

an international community that feels it has tried everything with Sana’a at one time or another, to no lasting effect. Developments in late 2009 and early 2010 do not promise the fresh start that is needed.

[Tukhachevskii]

UK ambassador in Yemen Escapes Bomb Blast

and

Suicide Bombers Targets British Ambassador in Yemen

and

"Suicide Bomber" Targets British Ambassador to Yemen. This Times article also contains an interesting, if of doubtful relevance, tidbit regarding the Ambassador's pregnant mistress.

[Tukhachevskii]

Interesting report from the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) entitled The Consequences of Yemen's Ungoverned Space on the Arabian Peninsula;

Police found gangs in remote areas, including Abu-Arish forest in Jizan, who were smuggling contraband from Yemen and Ethipoia respectively to Arabian Peninsula cities. Investigations of the 2002 bombing of the Israeli owned Paradise Hotel in Mombassa, as well as the simultaneous attempt to shoot down an Arkia Boeing 757 charter jet as it took off from the city en route to Tel Aviv, show how both attacks were facilitated by the terrorists' ability to access relibale transport and financial platforms. Preparation for the attacks incorporated explosives and missiles smuggled from Yemen, planning meetings in six Kenyan towns (Nairobi, Siyu, Mombassa, Nyali, Kikambala, and Lamu) and three external countries (Somalia, Yemen and Tanzania) mostly arranged via coded cell phones, and the electronic transfer of some $100,000 in funding. The African-Arabian Peninsula transnational linkages are not understood well and this is another unknown factor contributing to ungovernable space.

Link doesn't re-direct to required page. Scroll down to find it.

[Jedburgh]

RAND, 3 May 10: Regime and Periphery in Northern Yemen: The Huthi Phenomenon

For nearly six years, the government of Yemen has conducted military operations north of the capital against groups of its citizens known as “Huthis.” In spite of using all means at its disposal, the government has been unable to subdue the Huthi movement. Along with southern discontent and al-Qa'ida-inspired terrorism, the Huthi conflict presents an enduring threat to the stability of Yemen and the regime of its president. This book presents an in-depth look at the conflict in all its sociocultural, political, and military aspects. Basing their research on a wide variety of sources, both Western and non-Western, the authors provide a history of the Huthi movement and its origins in the Zaydi branch of Islam. They discuss the various stages of the conflict in detail and map out its possible future trajectories. In spite of a recent ceasefire, the 2009-2010 round of fighting, featuring Saudi involvement and Iranian rhetorical condemnation of Saudi-Yemeni actions, points to the conflict becoming transnational and increasingly sectarian. These developments run contrary to the interests of the United States and its friends in the region, as they seek to combat al-Qa'ida-related threats and build Yemeni capacity.....

CEIP, 5 May 10: War in Saada: From Local Insurrection to National Challenge

Key conclusions about the conflict in Saada:

• Fighting likely to continue. The current cease-fire agreed to in February 2010 is likely to fail as the central government shows little interest in addressing the core grievances of the rebelling Houthis.

• Priorities are misguided. The Southern secessionist movement is Yemen’s more serious security threat, but the regime is more involved in Saada for two key reasons: the government believes the war is winnable, and uses the military operations in the North to send a message to agitators in the South.

• Costs are escalating. In the six years the war evolved from a local insurrection into a national challenge, devastating the economy and consuming crucial resources.

• Burdens disproportionately felt by noncombatants. The six rounds of fighting came with high humanitarian costs. Hostilities displaced over 250,000 people, killed hundreds or thousands (the exact number of casualties is unknown), and destroyed significant civilian infrastructure.

• Conflict expands beyond borders. When Saudi Arabia’s military entered the conflict in November 2009 following Houthi incursions, conditions went from bad to worse. But there is no evidence that the conflict in Saada is a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran as commonly asserted.

[Tukhachevskii]

Briton among 30 arrested on suspicion of Al-Qaeda links in Yemen

One of the French detainees was identifed as Jeremy Johnny Witter, 23, who had been studying at the Sanaa Institute in the capital's Old City. The school's director, Muhammad al-Anisi, told The Time that he and his staff had become suspicious of the young man, who, like Mr Abdulmutallab, already spoke fluent Arabic and rarely attended classes. Mr Al-Anisi described the student as a "very quiet, very polite and very religious" yong man.

That last staement made me do a double take, having been to Yemen and knowing that the phrase "very religious" generally applies to every young man there. Wouldn't know about the women!

&
Yemen is centre of militant world according to counter-terror officials

Inside the White House, the Pentagon and the US intelligence agencies the fear is that Yemen is more likely to produce a successful suicide mission within the US than perhaps any other country.

[davidbfpo]

A lenthy NYT article on the Yemen, which pulls the history, culture and far more well together. No surprises, but the culture aspects are well made.

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/11/ma...ewanted=1&_r=1

[AdamG]

Sana’a, July 11 (IANS) Al Qaeda’s Yemeni wing Sunday claimed responsibility for last month’s attack on the intelligence headquarters in Aden that left at least 11 people dead.
The Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), however, claimed that the attack left 24 people dead.

“The battalion of martyrs broke into the intelligence headquarters’ building in Aden on early June 19 and successfully managed to kill at least 24 security officers, soldiers and police who were in the building at that time,” Xinhua reported, quoting a AQAP statement.

“We killed 15 high-ranking intelligence officers, six intelligence policewomen, all the security soldiers who were guarding the main gate of the building and one cleaning worker, set fire to all offices of the building - including offices of the intelligence director and his deputy and to two police cars, destroyed six other vehicles and looted Israeli-made automatic weapons,” the AQAP statement said.

http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/...100394246.html

[SWJ Blog]

Secret Assault on Terrorism Widens on Two Continents

Entry Excerpt:

Secret Assault on Terrorism Widens on Two Continents - Scott Shane, Mark Mazzetti, and Robert F. Worth, New York Times. In roughly a dozen countries - from the deserts of North Africa, to the mountains of Pakistan, to former Soviet republics crippled by ethnic and religious strife - the United States has significantly increased military and intelligence operations, pursuing the enemy using robotic drones and commando teams, paying contractors to spy and training local operatives to chase terrorists.

Moderator's Note: Copied here from SWJ blog for reference as the focus is on the Yemen.

[davidbfpo]

I missed spotting this news story two weeks ago, until reading a commentary by Professor Paul Rogers:

In one recent incident in Yemen, a US air strike that was intended to kill an al-Qaida-linked group actually killed the Deputy Governor of Marib Province who had been engaged in talks with local paramilitaries aimed at persuading them to give up their actions.

Link:http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.u...ex_war_shadows

Not exactly inspiring conducting such a strike. Lack of knowledge on the situation on the ground, including the tradition of negotiation with tribes in conflict with the centre / nation-state and co-ordination with the host state.

This is one news wire report:http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...QK5OgEARY2hRdw

[M-A Lagrange]

Surprised no one flagged that one.
8 Yemeni soldiers and 1 civilian killed in an RPG + machinegun attack by AQ in Al-Rai, Jaar, Abyane province on Saturday 28.
(Sorry link in French)

M-A

Yémen: huit soldats et un civil tués dans une attaque attribuée à Al-Qaïda
"Huit soldats ont été tués dans une attaque lancée par des membres d'Al-Qaïda contre un poste militaire dans le quartier Al-Rai de la ville de Jaar, dans la province d'Abyane",

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/73/20100828...a-d79e08a.html

[davidbfpo]

An odd article, the full title being 'Yemeni officials admit they are losing the battle against al-Qaeda', being a report from:

Zinjibar, the ramshackle principal town of Abyan province..

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-al-Qaeda.html

Map:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zinjibar

A wider look at the roots of AQ in the Yemen:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...men-focus.html

[davidbfpo]

A good commentary IMHO on Yemen,a s once again the focus returns to this poor country, hat tip to FB Blog:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...peril?page=0,0

Ends with:

Neither approach -- full invasion or surgical strikes -- will solve the problem of al-Qaeda terrorism in Yemen and make America safer. The United States and its allies have been lucky three times in just over a year. Counting on that luck holding is not a safe bet.

[davidbfpo]

Yet again hat tip to FP Blog and subtitled:

The WikiLeaks cables show clearly that the Yemeni government diverted U.S. and British counterterrorism funding to fight its domestic rebels.

This sentence sums it all up, not from a leaked diplomatic cable:

Allowing Yemen to draw the United States into standing a mercenary army for Saleh against his domestic opponents, while hoping he uses it against al Qaeda as well, implies a triumph of wishful thinking over experience.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._game?page=0,0

[davidbfpo]

From Abu M a reminder the Yemen has not gone away:http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawam...ter-saleh.html

Opening with:

On January 24, President Salih addressed the Yemeni people and offered the compulsively quotable wisdom that Yemen is not Tunisia. But if Yemen is not Tunisia, or Egypt for that matter, then what is it?

Which ends with this sentence:

The United States needs to start making friends now, especially outside of Sanaa, with local and tribal leaders. The tribes are a constant in Yemen; the government, after a 30-some year hiatus, is about to be a lot less so.

Now where have we heard tribes before?

[Bob's World]

I don't know that the U.S. needs to make "friends" with tribes, we must need to stop making them out to be, or making them into "enemies" or "threats."

Our problem is that once we make someone our "friend" the next thing we want to do is make him President or King, and then we once again find ourselves overly committed to some single man or faction; and right back to where we are right now across the ME.

I argue for a more principled and neutral approach, weighted to support the overall welfare of the populace of any given state rather than some specific government or interest group. I see that this is how the White House is playing it with Tunisia and Egypt so far. I hope the are reaching out to Yemen, Jordan, Syria, Libya, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, etc with similar messages.

1. These are the principles we stand for.
2. We prioritize the welfare and stability of your overall populace over the sustainment of your government or any other, or any other interest groups outside the government.
3. We encourage thoughtful evolution of government over either continued suppression of popular will, or revolution of government by a populace that feels it is denied any other recourse.
4. Dedicating the power and the influence of the US to encourage proper behavior of all stakeholders.
5. Being willing to embrace and work with whomever ultimately rises to power, and holding them to this same philosophy of thought.

Too often, when some group we disapprove of, or some group that has been placed on a "terrorist list", or when things don't go the way we wanted them to, (The Shah gets tossed in Iran, Hamas wins an election in Palestine, etc) we tend to pout (for lack of a better word) and freeze them out from full participation in free society. Such exclusionary tactics form alliances of necessity of those we place in such categories. I see no profit from our continuing to act in that manner. Sometimes I think we do it merely to have the "threats" to "contain" that are necessary to make that dated approach to grand strategy and foreign policy work.

We have an opportunity in Yemen. Saudi and Yemeni revolutionaries both find sanctuary there, but if we can only see these men as "Al Qaeda" or as "Terrorists" we will trap ourselves into the role of continuing to support governments with little support by their own populaces, and in the role of doing or supporting the dirty work of suppressing those members of their populaces who dare to stand up.

The intel guys are wrong.

The ideologues are wrong.

The Good Cold Warriors are wrong.

It is as much time for the U.S. to evolve in our approach to foreign policy as it is time for these "friendly" governments to evolve in their approach to their domestic policies.

[Fuchs]

1. These are the principles we stand for.
2. We prioritize the welfare and stability of your overall populace over the sustainment of your government or any other, or any other interest groups outside the government.
3. We encourage thoughtful evolution of government over either continued suppression of popular will, or revolution of government by a populace that feels it is denied any other recourse.
4. Dedicating the power and the influence of the US to encourage proper behavior of all stakeholders.
5. Being willing to embrace and work with whomever ultimately rises to power, and holding them to this same philosophy of thought.

3)
"Encourage" how?

4)
What power? Spending power?
What influence? What source of influence is left in your program?

5)
What "work with"?
Sign air traffic treaties?
Selflessly send trainers (assuming that their expertise is useful and can be transferred)?
Pump billions of aid into the country (unlikely)?
Protect with veto in UNSC?

What meaningful "work with" is on the table?



In the end, the U.S. has more of a domestic mess than it seems to be able to cope with. Its relevance in distant places was and is small unless dirty things are done.

You can bribe a government with "aid" (guess what - there are countries which actually focus on basic needs of populations in their "aid" programs!), you can sell weapons, you can exchange intelligence info (especially from electronic sources), you can sell photo ops with your president in exchange for a favour, you can threaten with coups and assassination. You can also distort the suppression of popular discontent as CT activity.

Yet, once don't do dirty things and are just a distant country with lots of distant friends and a large economy, you're not that special or important any more.
You stopped playing great power games then.