Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
This is the air force model of Theater Security Cooperation. Just as the Navy does port calls (nothing builds US influence and rapport like letting loose a few thousand drunken sailors on some port community), the AF does foreign military sales.
Thanks for the cheap shot on the USAF. As already pointed out, FMS cases are not Theater Security Cooperation. And they normally are driven by political (read OSD) policy, not service prerogatives. In this case, the decision that providing the Egyptian AF with the same F-16s the Israelis got was a decent way of influencing them as well as keeping a peaceful strategic balance...

Also, you could easily say the same thing about the Army and the M-1s that rolled into Tahrir Square...

I don't see it helping much in the near term, but the long-term investment of such complex systems does lead to a stability of who the the government is going to work with.
As I pointed out before, the big advantage is that you have a relationship. When you pick up the phone to call the generals in Cairo, you are talking to someone that knows and understands the US. Relationships matter, hardware is merely the key to unlock the door. Also, note that the hardware is what allowed Egypt to feel secure and be at peace with Israel since the 70's- would a war between them have made you feel better?

The question is, will we be able to swallow our pride and work with them if they are more closely aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood than with the current regime? I hope so.
We will undoubtedly have to work with them... but that doesn't mean we have to support the Muslim Brotherhood, even if they have renounced violence...

We had a similar deal in place with Iran, and when the Iranians ran us off I suspect we did not work too hard to leverage the need to maintain their "made in the USA" equipment as a rationale to establish and maintain relations with the new government. We should have. It would have saved a lot of the silliness between the west and Iran that has gone down since. But with both Israel and Saudi Arabia seeing Iran as enemy #1, there is a lot of pressure on the US to hold them in that light as well. That is too bad, as Iran is arguably the most pro-US Muslim populace and is a true nation that will endure into the foreseeable future.
Iran was arguably different in that the military there WAS seen as being an instrument of the Shah. The military in Egypt (thus far) is far more respected and has yet to align itself against the protesters. We'll see what happens if the crowds march on the Presidential Palace tomorrow on "Departure Friday"... but I would still argue that the relationships we have with the Egyptian brass allow us to pressure them to show restraint and protect the people. Which is probably a good thing.

I also fail to see how the Iranian populace was pro-US in the 80s... any poll numbers to back that up? I agree with you on engagement though... even at the height of the Cold War we at least tried to talk to the Soviets and maintain a mil-to-mil relationship...

V/R,

Cliff