Egypt's Spring Revolution (2011-2013)

[Dayuhan]

Well, on one side, it is a matter of fact that even Sarah Pailin has more to say about the future Egyptian president, than something like 80 Million of Egyptians.

How does one assess such influence at all, let alone declare it "a matter of fact"? I don't see that Sarah Palin has anything at all to say about it. Neither do most Egyptians, at least individually, though when enough of them get together they get to say something. The army is in the picture in a big way. The business elite are in the picture. The Muslim Brotherhood is in the picture. The emerging youth groups are in the picture, as is the urban middle class; both with limited organization but with the potential to make their presence felt. Within all of these groups and many others there are divisions and factions. How they will sort it out and what balance is reached remains to be seen, but any of the above have more to say than Sarah P.

On the other side, I nowhere said the Israelis have influence inside Egypt: only that one really can't deny they practically dictate the US foreign policy in the Middle East.

They don't seem able to persuade or force the US to support Mubarak.

One of particularly interesting things about the developments in Egypt is, that if that country really introduces some kind of "democracy", the (agreed: declining) US influence is not going to be as important any more. Which is why it's not surprising that Noah Chomsky concluded It's not radical Islam that worries the US – it's independence.

Noam Chomsky is a joke without a punchline; I've never seen a thing he wrote on matters political that was worth the bytes it took to distribute it. He does preach rather adeptly to a choir that seems to suspend critical thought as they approach his revelations, but if you're not a member of the choir it's generally pretty pointless. On linguistics it may be another matter; I'm told he knows something there. I'm not in a position to judge.

A transition into democracy or some semblance thereof could have all kinds of results, but the most probable is a long and difficult period for Egypt. Cultivating democracy and getting it to function on soil long occupied by a despots is a very tricky thing indeed. The threat of a takeover by the Muslim Brothers is only one scenario, another (and as likely) one is simple paralysis, with a plethora of poorly differentiated parties and candidates unable to achieve a meaningful mandate or take any meaningful action. Likely outcome might be a military coup, with or without US support, likely with support from a populace tired of dysfunction. These scenarios tend to see popular expectation sky high and government capacity dead low, a frustrating combination.

What it will or will not mean to the US remains to be seen; I for one have little interest in ideologically driven prophecy.

I don't see Russian (or Chinese) influence or presence as a threat.

I think most of us knew all along that today's crop of Middle eastern despots wouldn't last forever. How and when the transition would begin nobody knew. How fast it will proceed from nation to nation, nobody knows. What individual course each nation will take remains unknown. It will be sloppy at times and downright ugly at times. I don't personally see these developments as a "threat" in any overall sense. Along the way there will be threats, opportunities, complications and mistakes. There always are. The boat has started rocking, it had to sometime. We'll see where it ends up and manage as we go. There are lots of worse ways it could have started.

On the bright side, Syria and/or Libya could be next in line, not such a bad thing at all... and I'm sure some folks in Iran are watching closely.

Many of us don't fear independence at all, no matter what the Chomskies may pretend, and I'm not convinced that "The US" generically is all that terrified of it either.