Well, on one side, it is a matter of fact that even Sarah Pailin has more to say about the future Egyptian president, than something like 80 Million of Egyptians.
On the other side, I nowhere said the Israelis have influence inside Egypt: only that one really can't deny they practically dictate the US foreign policy in the Middle East.
One of particularly interesting things about the developments in Egypt is, that if that country really introduces some kind of "democracy", the (agreed: declining) US influence is not going to be as important any more. Which is why it's not surprising that Noah Chomsky concluded It's not radical Islam that worries the US – it's independence.I sometimes wonder who will miss the declining American influence more, the Americans who wielded it or the critics who used it to explain everything that happened in the world. Things will be more complex without a clear bogeyman, and we may have to actually exert ourselves and try to understand the full range of forces at play.
We're in full agreement here, except that I'm not as optimistic: IMHO, this saga is still only a step behind the starting line.For Egypt, of course, the hard part begins when Mubarak leaves. Transitions out of dictatorship are far from easy, especially if democracy comes into the picture, which it may or may not in this case. Popular expectations will be very high and government capacity is likely to be very low, a stressful combination. We're halfway through chapter one, and it's likely to be quite the saga.
Let me be bold and conclude that this is next to impossible.Originally Posted by Fuchs
The reason for this is an entire series of incredible (often unbelieveable) failures on the part of Moscow that occurred in recent years. Hope, nobody minds me going into some details, and you're going to find them "relevant" when I explain; if nothing else, most are related to "arms" and "military".
Algeria: in 2006, Putin travelled to Algeria to sign that "huge" deal (reported worth around US$7.5 billion), envisaging a very complex agreement that included the Russians writting off most of the Algerian debt (something like US$4.5 - which the Algerians were not paying back since years), Algerian gas deliveries and "return" of some 60 MiG-21s and MiG-23s, in exchange for newly-built MiG-29SMT-2s, Su-30s and Yak-130s etc. Large parts of this deal collapsed in late 2008. See bellow why.
Syria: the media in Moscow reported it is selling arms to Syria in 1999, in 2000, in 2001 (supposedly, they delivered MiG-29s and Su-27s), in 2006, in 2008, in 2009 (supposedly, Syrians ordered MiG-31s) etc. If you ask the spokesman of Rosoboronexport, he's even now talking about plans to "sell" 40+ Su-30s and 60 Yak-130s to Damascus as if this is already taking place. Actually, through all of these times they did not sell anything at all to Damascus. Not a single bullet.
Where is the problem? Most of former Soviet clients have huge debts for arms delivered back in the 1960s and 1970s, which they refuse to pay. Syrian argument, just for example, is that this armament was of poor quality, that it did not guarantee even technological ballance with the Israel, and that it only caused immense losses. Algerians think similar. Facit, they are not paying.
That's why negotiations between Damascus and Mosow (reports about Syrian debts range between US$15 and 20 billion), and between Algiers and Moscow were stalled for years, and why it took Putin's trip to Algiers to bring at least that contract to a conclusion. However, as soon as RSK MIG finally began delivering "new" MiG-29s to Algeria, back in 2007 (a few months before it was to do the same with Syria), the Algerians found out these are no newly-built planes, as agreed, but overhauled (read: overpainted) aircraft built in the early 1990s. Furthermore, the delivery of Su-30s to Algeria slipped almost two years behind the schedule. The Russians ignored Algerian demands for an explanation until the Algerians almost killed the entire deal: MiG-29s had to be taken back to Russia on Roso's expenses, and the money Algerians transferred as payment for MiG-29s was swiftly transferred from MIG's to Sukhoi's account. Arrogant as they usually are when it comes to "dumb Arabs", the Russians explained the problem in "internal Algerian disputes". The fact is that only an accelerated (though still late) delivery of first Su-30s saved this contact. Still, to make things worse, the Russians then proved unable to deliver ordered Yak-130s; before the Algerians cancelled that contract for the second time, they offered (in spring 2010) a second batch of Su-30s, resulting in a situation where Algeria is about to get 44 aircraft of that type for a price somebody else wouldn't get even 20...
Such "improvisations" did not save MIG RSK's participation in it, though, then - warned by the Algerian experience - the Syrians followed the pattern, checked what the Russians delivered to them, and killed their entire contract (BTW, Syrians were already offended by Russians claiming they ordered MiG-31s, which they did not). The Russians then explained this Syrian decision with "Damascus lacks money": ridiculous in the light of the fact that they had to writte off most of the Syrian debt just in order to get the order for MiG-29s signed. Furthermore, curiously enough, instead of "new" Russian MiGs, Syrians ended purchasing 33 old MiG-23MLDs from Belarus stocks...
(For details about this affair see "Algerian Fighter Deal Threatened", in Combat Aircraft magazine, December 2007; "Syrien lenht MiGs ab", in Fliegerrevue 07/2009 and "Alte MiG-23 kommt zu neuen Ehren", in Fliegerrevue 12/2009)
I have no doubt that the "news" about these affairs spread quite swiftly through various Arab capitals. Surely enough, countries like Sudan and Yemen continue ordering, but they know they are purchasing second-hand equipment. I find it little surprising that vast majority of Russian attempts to cooperate with Arab countries on the plan of gas and oil exploatation, or sell them entire refineries, ended in similar fashion.
BTW, Russian attempts in other Arab countries were not more successful. Moscow offered, at various opportunities during recent years, MiG-29s, helicopters etc. to Egypt Eventually, the Egyptians concluded it's much more convenient to continue getting US arms for free (on the top of that, they bought only a few An-72s from Ukraine).
Finally, the Russian offer, sometimes reported as "contract signed", to sell hundreds of helicopters and other hardware to Saudi Arabia, turned out as an (successful) attempt to press the USA and EU to sell new F-15s, EF-2000s and other stuff, respectivelly...
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