Did we 'win' in Iraq?

[Rhino 6]

Having returned from Iraq in November 2010, I would argue that Iraq becoming a "beacon of democracy in the middle east" is a bit idealistic. First I would point out that the last election was very contested and despite losing the popular vote, president Maliki remains in power. Second, I would remind you that there are deep divisions inside Iraq and the probability of renewed sectarian violence is just around the corner.

As U.S. forces complete the draw down, Iraq will be left resoncible for ensuring security. Having trained Iraqi forces I would argue they are capable, however successful democracies typically should not rely heavily on the military or police to maintain stability. My opinion is sectarian violence will escalate as American troops come home and Iraqis are left to figure things out.

[Steve the Planner]

Marcellinus:

One thing we can say with certainty: Iraq is not a War Zone.

Instead, it is a country with fundamental internal challenges to be resolved, and by a potentially messy process. Is that materially different than if we left immediately?

The underlying conflicts over the past decades (not just our period) were embedded, and would have, under any scenario, led to a "rebalancing" with the potential for violent retributions among many factions with legitimate grievances.

Behind it all, all of the ingredients are available for great prosperity under many alternative scenarios. That same list of ingredients, however existed in the 1980s and 1990s.

There is no assurance of a positive outcome but many of us who invested ourselves there, and lost comrades in the effort, hope for a safe and prosperous future for the many generous and hard-pressed Iraqi people we came to know well.

My position: Their future, whatever it may be, was deferred by any further major US presence. I was sent there as part of the mission to get us out, so my mission will shortly be accomplished.

Friday is a day when many Iraqis are being called to mass protests over very serious failures within the system. I would like nothing better than for Mr. Maliki to actually join the protesters in legitimately asking the hard-questions: How are we, as Iraqis, going to get beyond all this?

[j earl]

Having recently returned from Iraq, I would have to say that based on my work with the local security forces that Iraq is indeed headed in the right direction. My biased opinion is that the accomplishments in Iraq are extraordinary, this sentiment was also shared by our Iraqi partner force members. Perfect no, but the very idea of the end state in COIN is hard to measure in the binary sense.