Yesterday's article and subsequent discussion my be of interest.
The main themes are surging energy demand within OPEC, their rising population & food requirements, and the matter of export decline (re oil).
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6862#more
US ag policy is administered in 5-year chunks.
Wes Jackson and others say that we need a longer-term vision and are suggesting a 50 year Farm Bill, which prompted this discussion:
http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/6728#more
Yesterday's article and subsequent discussion my be of interest.
The main themes are surging energy demand within OPEC, their rising population & food requirements, and the matter of export decline (re oil).
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6862#more
FYI, this appeared this morning:
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/...ity-studi.html
I've gone through the doc but it's in German so of course there is much that I don't understand yet.
However, it is clear that the authors take PO seriously (with graphs from Oil Drum, etc and a couple of pages on EROI/net energy) and have a good deal to say about agri-food.
Apart from some of the war college studies (and they are "only" the opinion of the analyst) this appears to be the most detailed military analysis of PO yet (at least among those that are publicly available).
I've asked a couple of German friends to assist, so I hope to have some details in the next few days.
If any of you can read German, please help us out.
First, this from Norm at Oil Drum yesterday (in normal English):
Choice quotes and conclusions:
Oil becomes a crucial factor of shaping international relations": scarcity leads to a deliberalization of oil markets which in turn leads to more bilateral supply relationships. A window of opportunity opens for oil-exporting nations to pursue their economic, political, and ideological goals in regard to industrialized [importing] nations.
- Western foreign policy (e.g. towards Africa, MidEast) will have to become more "pragmatic" -- China et al. are already "pragmatic" and therefore better positioned. "Military interventions will become more selective - actors are overstrained". A new focus on one's own problems.
- "The transformation to a post-fossil-fuel society leads to economic and political crises": unemployment, food scarcity, less market-based distribution of oil products (rationing). Ultimately there is a "loss of trust" in public and governmental institutions which will possibly lead to more extremism and fragmentation on a national and international level.
- "Systemic risk of a 'Tipping Point'":
In the short term, oil production decline leads to reduced economic activity and trade. Loss of income for some actors, loss of livelihood for others. National budgets come under extreme pressure because of reduced tax revenue and higher spending on unemployment, food, and alternatives to oil.
- "In the medium term, the global economic system and every market-based economy breaks down. [...] Tipping Point: In an economy that is shrinking for the foreseeable future, savings are not invested anymore [...] banking sytem, stock markets, financial markets collapse [...] a completely new system status [...] Banks lose their reason to exist... since they can't earn interest [...] Loss of trust in currencies [...] Collapse of [international] value chains. Mass unemployment [...] National bankruptcies [...] Breakdown of critical infrastructure [...] Famines [...]
- It is probable that a high number of nations will not be able to make necessary investments in a timely and adequate manner. A high systemic risk is a given regardless of Germany's own energy policy because of its high grade of globalization."
- "Even if society's faith in market-based systems is big, its understanding of complex matters small, and its assumption of rational economic actors questionable, one can expect [...] uncertainty to give way to the realization that a critical point has been passed.
Also, here are some auto-translations which are pretty garbled, but some of the points are clear.
1. This one from Peak-Oil:
http://translate.google.com/translat...bundeswehr.php
2. from Spiegel:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/...715138,00.html
3. from Welt:
http://translate.google.com/translat...n&hl=&ie=UTF-8
- Rick
Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-01-2010 at 10:44 PM. Reason: Quote marks added and link fixed
I have seen firsthand how water and access to it for farming use is a critical component of life in rural Third World areas. Seems that violence has broken out across the border in Pakistan in the wake of a tribal dispute over such access:
http://http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD...ex.html?hpt=T2
Custis,
Thanks for your info... I was not aware of the recent fighting over water.
I'm not surprised, though, and it looks like Asia must anticipate more of the same... the decline of the Himalayan glaciers seems unstoppable (same here in Canada with our Rocky Mtn ice-fields, whose Athabaska River flow is vital to tar sands extraction which is now the #1 source of USA imports).
-- Rick
This should be worth watching:
http://channel.nationalgeographic.co...ideos/08608_00
The UK Soil Association continues to do excellent work.
Their concise (13 pg) analysis of global phosphorus supply has just been released.
It is highly readable and addresses another critical (and rather neglected) aspect of resource depletion:
http://www.soilassociation.org/Default.aspx?TabId=1259
This concise article by Lester Brown in Foreign Policy warns of converging trends leading to "The Great Food Crisis of 2011:"
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...crisis_of_2011
Slap,
The link to the FP article is working here.
davidbfpo
Finally, a topic I feel a bit versed in enough to post a comment.
From where I sit, 2500 miles southwest of Hawaii, I can say with some confidence that food security is a very big issue for fisheries-owning and still-developing Pacific Island nations as well as the industrialized countries that exploit those fisheries. For Japan, China, Taiwan and even the U.S., fishing access, development assistance and diplomacy go hand in hand. Japan by far is the most aggressive and most invested country when it comes to tying fisheries access to their aid policies in the Pacific Islands. Forget about beef, pork, poultry and other land-based animals; the protein of choice for many coastal countries is fish and other seafood.
Fisheries stocks are collapsed or near-collapse in many areas of the world's oceans. The western and central Pacific fishery remains one of the last healthy areas, yet is under huge pressure from traditional actors as well as new entrants from Europe and South America. The piracy problem in Somalia has its roots in illegal fishing. Some of the recent clashes between Japan, the Koreas and China occurred over fishing rights. Fishermen in the Philippines and Indonesia drape the gunwales of their boats with spikes and concertina to keep naval and coast guard forces from boarding when they are caught in other countries' waters illegally.
Add fishing to the list of actual and potential conflict-generating issues around the world.
http://www.japantoday.com/category/n...-boats-sengoku
http://eprints.utas.edu.au/3239/1/Po...sponse_IUU.pdf
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...12shanker.html
Hi, Michael
Thanks for your post... nothing there that I would disagree with.
I'm not sure where you are (NZ?) but here in Canada we've had our own experience with the sudden collapse of the Atlantic cod off Newfoundland two decades ago, from which we (and of course, the cod) still have not recovered.
On both land and sea, we need to change our ways, and quickly....
I was hoping somebody would make a movie of this but it seems to be a bit to esoteric. The Cod Wars were pretty epic. If you get past the funny name. We're not talking about third world countries either. Well England is pretty close...
Sam Liles
Selil Blog
Don't forget to duck Secret Squirrel
The scholarship of teaching and learning results in equal hatred from latte leftists and cappuccino conservatives.
All opinions are mine and may or may not reflect those of my employer depending on the chance it might affect funding, politics, or the setting of the sun. As such these are my opinions you can get your own.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41089972Overheating emerging markets, in China in particular, pose the biggest threat to the market and political situation in 2011 according to Philippe Gijsels, head of research at BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets.
Like many environmentalists, Lester Brown is worried. In his new book "World on the Edge," released this week, Brown says mankind has pushed civilization to the brink of collapse by bleeding aquifers dry and overplowing land to feed an ever-growing population, while overloading the atmosphere with carbon dioxide.
If we continue to sap Earth's natural resources, "civilizational collapse is no longer a matter of whether but when," Brown, the founder of Worldwatch and the Earth Policy Institute, which both seek to create a sustainable society, told AFP.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php...show_article=1
A scrimmage in a Border Station
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail
http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg
Thanks for your interest and for your contribution, Adam. Again, there is nothing that I would disagree with.
Post Carbon (Richard Heinberg, etc) did an excellent study on peak oil & agri-food two years ago:
http://www.postcarbon.org/report/413...nsition-toward
It's starting up again....
Link to zerohedge.com on rice futures
Yes, it's the hedge funds gossip column, and it's full of spin, pitches, and probably outright falsehoods, but they have a tendency to hit the stories days, if not weeks before the rest of the MSM even wakes up from their seemingly eternal snoozefest.
And when they start talking about rice future almost going up the limit 2 days in a row, time to take notice and pay attention.
If rice prices go up only 40% to 50% (nowhere near "double"), there's going to be governments everywhere in serious trouble. Forget "Democracy" - when governments can't feed people their most basic staple of their diet, that's a primer case for political instability....sending rice from $15.60 to $15.99 in seconds. And since Rice previously closed at $15.51, we were literally two cents away from a second limit up day in the world's most popular food. Since we speculated that rice is the next commodity bubble on Monday morning, the grain has surged nearly 7%. Incidentally, this is the highest price for rice in the last twelve month period. Lastly, if Hoenig is indeed telegraphing QE3 as we suspect, look for rice to double six months from now. It is now only a matter of time before some momo chasing idiot on CNBC "discovers" what a great investment rice is, and the thing trades limit up for the indefinite future.
Link to MSNBC, The Ed Show with a nice peace on how Wall Street is causing Food Shortages in Egypt, which helped inspire the Revolution. Egypt is the largest importer of wheat in the middle east....manipulate the price of bread through Wall Street-Goldman-Sachs speculation and you get....revolution.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3096434/
The frigid weather in Mexico has been the most severe in half a century, which prompted Sysco and The Packer to issue alerts a few days ago:
http://digitaljournal.com/article/303583
Small stuff compared to larger issues like fish, rice and wheat woes in China & India, but this is something that we North Americans will experience first-hand, if only for a few months.
This graph was provided this evening by Dave Hughes, Canadian geoscientist and peak oil analyst:
Food & oil price.jpg
The implications should be obvious (for both farmers and consumers) if oil price volatility should continue.
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