Quote Originally Posted by Steve the Planner View Post
Crow:

Of those fighters and stores, how many are in Tripoli and under control?
In and around Tripoli, the regime should have an equivalent of three brigades (5th, 32nd and one called Kuwelidi al-Hamidi). Large parts of these are busy assaulting az-Zawiya since four or five days.

In Tripoli there is also Mitiga AB, where much of the LARAF is currently concentrated, including at least a squadron of MiG-23s, remnants of Mirage F.1ED squadron, and several transport and helicopter units (including a squadron each of Mi-8s, Mi-24s and CH-47Cs, plus one unit equipped with An-26s; then one "police" squadron flying A.109s and a unit equipped with UAVs). It appears they moved most of operational G-2/J-21s and SF.260s from Misurata to this place as well.

However, this is not only about "what's in Tripoli": as mentioned above, the regime still controls two huge air bases in central Libya (Syrte and Hun), with immense underground depots in between. They have one squadron each of Su-22s, Su-24s (between 3 and 5 aircraft), Mi-24s, and Mi-8s there at least, plus another brigade of ground forces.

Yet another Army brigade is active between Misurata and Beni Wallid (it attacked Misurata yesterday, but lost an equivalent of a company in the process).

The ballance of forces under regime's control (those on the eastern side of Tripoli, plus those along the border to Tunisia and Algeria) equal to another brigade.

In that whole scenario, what are the critical points than can be targeted?
Provided you're talking about theoretical targets for air strikes by the West or neighbours or a coalition of the both....IMHO, in the current situation there would be four major targets:

- Bab Azizzia barracks in Tripoli
- Syrte AB (to keep the LARAF there grounded)
- concentration of regime troops besieging az-Zawiya (the latter is also of major humanitarian concern, IMHO)
- Mitiga AB (to keep the LARAF grounded in the West too).

I declare myself a "democracy zealot", and consider this a popular, mass uprising of internal and secular forces in Libya. Their protests were initially peaceful: they turned viollent due to a brutal and merciless reaction from the regime. Right now, only the regime could stop the fighting, which it clearly refuses to do, since that would mean it would give up: the choice the rebels are facing is to stop fighting and get slaughtered if they do, or die while attempting to bring the regime to fall.

My conclusion is that - regardless what the rebels say - the regime has to get hit in a most massive fashion possible, and be forced to give up.