I don't think ICG is inhabiting the same reality as the people in Libya:Originally Posted by M-A Lagrange
"The alternative option, which Crisis Group has advocated, is to engage in a vigorous political effort to achieve an immediate ceasefire in place to be followed by the prompt opening of a dialogue on the modalities of a transition to a new government that the Libyan people will accept as legitimate."
As I read it, she takes the traditional pacifist approach based on "jaw-jaw" is better then "war-war." Somehow the people who advocate this always overlook the fact that their approach also says "go-go" to dictators whose preferred solution to any opposition is "kill-kill." In this particular case, Qaddafi knows quite well that once he's killed the rebels the rest of the world will express outrage, maybe to the level of a "strongly condemn," but will also quietly return to business as usual. (Those seized assets? The crisis started with Qaddafi as the recognized ruler, it will end with Qaddafi as the recognized ruler, and the assets will be returned.)
The West won't intervene, and the Arab street will (already has begun to) claim that the non-response is all about oil. Of course, if the West had intervened, the Arab street (and the Western babbling class) would have claimed it was all about oil. Only a fool sits down to a game where the first rule is: you aren't allowed to win. Which is why, reading the debate between Ken and Carl (isolationism vs. interventionism), to my surprise I found myself agreeing with Ken.
In a world where the U.S. leads, we might have gotten some effective intervention in time for it to matter. But leadership involves risks and costs, so that world involves the risk of a war, and as sure as God made little green apples, the U.S. would be pilloried for it. In a world where the U.S. doesn't lead, we get Rwanda, Darfur, and now Libya, because deploring a crisis is cheap, safe and free moral posturing that allows people to pretend they've done something because they care so deeply and use harsh language.
As far as Libya goes, it's all over but the rape and murder of the reprisals. As for others suffering under a third world dictatorship, they would do well to look hard at this and remember that the Western babbling classes support them only insofar as they can use them to advance their domestic political agenda. Take them at their word, and you wind up in the same position as Qaddafi's soon to be dead enemies.
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