Ivory Coast

[JMA]

Demanding end to violence in Côte d’Ivoire, Security Council imposes targeted sanctions

In unanimously adopting resolution 1975, the Council urged Mr. Gbagbo to immediately step aside, repeating the calls made for months following his UN-certified defeat in November’s presidential run-off, which was won by opposition leader Alassane Ouattara.

Importantly Resolution 1975 authorises UN peace-keepers to "to use all necessary means to carry out its mandate to protect civilians under imminent threat of violence."

[JMA]

[snip]

Are you impying that SA wants to hand over its African Super Power position to Nigeria? Are you sure that's a good idea?

Mandela attempted to provide statesmanship in various situations but was rebuffed by those who wanted the status quo maintained (and he himself was loyal to the end towards his old struggle mates like Libya which did not help either). You will note that the AU is more a club for thieves and murderers than a respected grouping of national leaders.

As Stan has acknowledged the US (along with Britain and France and the Soviets) allowed this toxic and pernicious situation to develop. The advocacy by some that the US should just walk away and let Africa sort it all out itself is beneath contempt. Rather like saying "we enjoyed the sex but are not interested in taking responsibility for the child born therefrom".

I don't know how it works in France but the view of the US foreign policy is that every new administration seems to believe it can just wipe the slate of the past clean and make a fresh start while ignoring all that has gone before.

The Brits are different in that they never had any noble intent in their dealings with Africa other than led by some missionaries they had a rush of blood to the head and went after the slave trade in East and Central Africa. That was short lived though.

MBeki tried and failed but anyone else would have failed. Honesty has nothing to do with that. Gbagbo is the problem: he is the symbol of the african bias of democracy is a colonial stuff not made for Africa. (I just hate that posture from african leaders and military staff)
African people have the right to live with legitimate governments that listen to them. (My personnal cross...)

Mbeki is and was hopeless and even more mired in the past than Mandela. He likes to believe there is a role for him as an "elder" statesman in Africa rather like those other two idiots Carter and Clinton see themselves on the world stage.

The younger generation of South Africans (blacks) are not trapped in the past and have less time old style leaders trapped in an outdated and counter productive paradigm.

Read this to get the idea: Wanted: A new foreign policy for South Africa

[snip]

Actually easier to say than to do.
In your post, I can read a will of disengagement from SA in the African pb. Is the situation in SADC that bad? Is the Mandela legacy in this organisation that bad?

SADC is a sick joke. The structure has no power and even if it did it does not have the political will. Take the failure to act over Zimbabwe. Need I say more?

[Backwards Observer]

Living overseas, I've sometimes gotten the impression that there are an increasing number of competing manifestations of the US foreign policy ectoplasm, each more phantasmically rectitudinous than the last.

ABIDJAN, Cote d’Ivoire - I’ve been in Cote d’Voire (Ivory Coast) since New Years Day meeting with government officials and talking to victims of recent election-related violence. I’ve also met the president, lunched with First Lady Simone Ehivet Gbagbo and even attended an exclusive meeting with all seven members of the Constitutional Council.

The conclusion? President Gbagbo won’t step aside because he is the certified winner of the presidential election.

Why Gbagbo Refuses To Go - Gary Lane - CBN 1/4/11

+++

Right wing evangelical Christians have begun a strong lobby to shore up support for defeated Ivorien leader, Laurent Gbagbo. The arrow head of the powerful bigoted and racially veiled push is notable owner of Christian Broadcasting Network, (CBN) Rev. Pat Robertson.
Buoyed by the massive assurances from Robertson and his American allies, said to have been brokered by a prominent “new age” Pentecostal preacher of Ivorien descent, Laurent Gbagbo bluntly refused to step down on Monday at a meeting with four African leaders.
On the same Monday, Rev. Robertson told a shocked 700 Club audience in America that “where is he gonna go?” and submitted that the U.S. government got it wrong in recognizing Gbagbo’s victorious challenger.

American Evangelicals Join Gbagbo To Propagate Falsehood - sharpedgenews.com (Nigeria) - 1/4/11

+++

As the situation in the Ivory Coast rapidly deteriorates, Sen. James Inhofe (Okla. - R) has written to U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton calling for new elections in the Ivory Coast, a signal of support for outgoing president Laurent Gbagbo who has refused to step down from office after losing an internationally certified presidential ballot in November.

Why Does James Inhofe Support Ivory Coast's Gbagbo? - FP - 3/30/11

+++

Rather than face Lovecraft-style future, it maybe time hock laptop and get year membership at new massage parlor that open up down street. Ching chong, ching chong chong.

[tequila]

Ivory Coast Army Chief Seeks Refuge - AP

JOHANNESBURG — South Africa says the Ivorian army chief of staff has sought refuge at the home of the South African ambassador to the troubled West African country.

A statement issued by the foreign ministry Thursday said Gen. Phillippe Mangou, his wife and five children arrived at the ambassador's home in Abidjan, Ivory Coast Wednesday night.

South Africa says it is consulting with unnamed parties in Ivory Coast, West African regional leaders, the African Union and the U.N. on Mangou's move.

Mangou sought refuge as rebels fighting to install Ivory Coast's democratically elected president began besieging Abidjan after seizing a key seaport and the hometown of the country's entrenched ruler.

Ivory Coast Defaulted Bonds Rally as Rebels Capture Key Port - Bloomberg

Ivory Coast’s $2.3 billion of defaulted Eurobonds are surging the most since they were sold a year ago as rebel fighters take control of the key cocoa- exporting port of San Pedro.

The bonds due in 2032 bonds advanced 4.6 percent to 44.638 cents on the dollar at 9:58 a.m. in London, heading for the biggest weekly advance since last April at 16 percent. The price is the highest since December.

Forces loyal to Alassane Ouattara, the internationally recognized winner of disputed presidential elections, seized the second-biggest port in the world’s largest cocoa producer, “without fighting,” Meite Sindou, spokesman for Ouattara’s Prime Minister Guillaume Soro, said in a phone interview late yesterday. The United Nations has imposed sanctions on incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo and urged him to give up power.

“Gbagbo’s days are numbered and we shall know either way in a few days or weeks once the situation is resolved,” Stuart Culverhouse, the London-based chief economist at Exotix Ltd., said in a phone interview today.

“The speed of the military advance has probably taken a lot of people by surprise over the last few days” and investors will “look favorably” on a government led by Ouattara to make the missed coupon payments ...

[ganulv]

but I feel comfortable stating that Pat Robertson is a scumbag as an objective fact.

Like was saying Staline in 1945 about Berlin: You can't ask a man to walk 5000 km under fire without having some fun on arrival point.

That’s a fair point, but there are important differences. The fighting the northerners have endured to this point does not begin to approach what the Red Army had been through. Also, this is a war to control one’s own nation rather than to incapacitate someone else’s. Sherman’s March to the Sea might be a better comparison, though not a perfect one.

Whether the northern forces can [conquer the country] without widespread human rights violations is the question.

The northern forces are certainly not saints but a greater potential for HR violations lies with those allied to Gbagbo. Migrant workers are at particular risk.

Right wing evangelical Christians have begun a strong lobby to shore up support for defeated Ivorien leader, Laurent Gbagbo. The arrow head of the powerful bigoted and racially veiled push is notable owner of Christian Broadcasting Network, (CBN) Rev. Pat Robertson.

How do you get Pat Robertson to feign interest in the welfare of Catholics? Oppose them to Muslims. I am pleased that security contractors have yet to spin this conflict as a front in the WoT. But since the federal government is handing out money I suspect it won’t take long…

[tequila]

Ivory Coast Battle Nears Decisive Stage - NYTIMES

DAKAR, Senegal — The battle for Ivory Coast’s presidency neared a conclusive phase on Thursday as opposition forces reached the outskirts of Abidjan, the country’s commercial center, news agencies reported, and the strongman Laurent Gbagbo’s army chief fled his post.

The army chief, Gen. Phillippe Mangou, sought refuge for himself and his immediate family in the home of the South African ambassador in Abidjan on Thursday, the South African Department of International Relations said in a statement.

His flight appeared to deal a potentially decisive blow to forces loyal to Mr. Gbagbo, who have crumbled from east to west in the West African nation. A string of cities, including the strategic cocoa exporting city of San Pedro, have fallen to forces loyal to Mr. Gbagbo’s rival, Alassane Ouattara, as they have swooped south towards Abidjan, the crucial stake in what has now become an open war for the presidency of what was once Francophone Africa’s economic leader ...

[JMA]

Stan, it all about the inability to act timeously against one individual (and normally a few of his military cronies) with the subsequent cost to millions of people in terms of deaths or as refugees or in terms of general geographic instability spilling over into neighbouring countries. The Brits have just thrown 16 million pounds into the emergency aid pot for the Ivory Coast and there will no doubt be much more to follow from all over. It will become a largely avoidable bottomless pit for aid money and a humanitarian disaster. The financial and human costs are rising as we predicted.

Here we go...

Labour urging Ivory Coast aid push as crisis worsens

More aid money needed:

Labour has warned the humanitarian situation in Ivory Coast is becoming "desperate" amid violence sparked by its disputed presidential election.

They have urged ministers to step up international efforts to get aid to the thousands of people displaced and forced to flee to neighbouring Liberia.

... a largely avoidable bottomless pit?

[Stan]

Here we go...

... a largely avoidable bottomless pit?

I raise you $17 million from the USA and 25 million euros from Europe (whoever they are these days).

But, this all pales in comparison to Palestine

In 2001 Saudi Arabia made the largest government donor contribution to Palestine/OPT since 1995, at US$654 million

Then this as you so eloquently already pointed out in the Pirate thread

In War Games: ... Polman argues that humanitarianism has become a massive industry that, along with the global media, forms an unholy alliance with warmongers.

[JMA]

I raise you $17 million from the USA and 25 million euros from Europe (whoever they are these days).

Remind me if you will, what is the cost of three cruise missiles?

[Stan]

Remind me if you will, what is the cost of three cruise missiles?

We've had this discussion before... They are friggin expensive

Just for the heck of it all, the following from Bloomberg

Out of the approximately $550 million cost for the first 10 days of the operations -- March 19 through March 28 -- the Pentagon said about $340 million was for munitions, mostly Raytheon Tomahawk missiles, which cost $1.5 million apiece.

The U.S. launched 192 Tomahawks in the first 10 days, for a cost of about $288 million...

[JMA]

OK, perhaps of more importance - JMA can tell us (emphasis added):

Mike, the wording of Obama's speech gives an indication of the desired end result. To exaggerate those prospects under a new leader is not new neither is the fact that the new leader's task is exponentially made more difficult if there has been any violent conflict leading up to his assuming his position of head of state.

He will need to watch his back all the time as Gbagbo (if he survives) and his tribal supporters will have a score to settle. So watch for northerners taking over the military or becoming the military and the birth of an intelligence organisation to monitor what Gbagbo supporters get up to (and this will very quickly extend to anyone who is a threat - real or fictional - to the new - northerner dominated - regime). Won't take long before its business as usual (Stan could probably put an accurate timeline on it).

Business as usual will be that Ouattara will quickly join the AU club and have the rules of African leadership explained to him. The main idea which is to protect African dictators and non democratic kleptocracies through adopting the manta "African solutions to African problems".

[JMA]

We've had this discussion before... They are friggin expensive

Just for the heck of it all, the following from Bloomberg

OK 3 @ $1.5million each. So lets keep the figure of $4.5million in mind while we see the mounting costs of the humanitarian operation and that without even factoring in the human cost in terms of lives and displacement etc.

[jmm99]

the US should go into the missile frigate rental business - in partnership with another "entity" that could put the boots on the ground needed to develop the real time intelligence to place those three or more missiles precisely on target.

What would an operation like that look like ? Seriously.

Regards

Mike

[Dayuhan]

Looks like Gbagbo might go down without any outside intervention needed. Good outcome... if it happens, of course. The place will be a mess and will be on the dole for a long time after, but that would have been the case in any event.

Only thing worse than an African solution to an African problem is an American, European, or Chinese solution to an African problem.

[M-A Lagrange]

Only thing worse than an African solution to an African problem is an American, European, or Chinese solution to an African problem.

This would be true is Africa was a country or at least an homogeneous place. But that's not the case.
Ivory Coast is not Central Africa to back up Stan. And it's not Southern Africa. This is a continent where coexist and cohabit places as South Sudan: a country that is implosing before being born; Somalia: should I explain; Rwanda and Uganda: 2 military dictatoriship disguised in democracies; DRC: the most corrupted place on the continent; South Africa and Ivory Coast: economically wealth countries with a fairly educated population; Egypt; Moroco; Algeria...

The way some of them solve issues are: genocide or ethnic cleasing (Rwanda, Burundi, Zimbabwe, Uganda...); civil war (South Sudan, Ivory Coast...); complete chaos (DRC); madness (South Sudan, Somalia...); Election (Botswana, South Africa...)

People of Ivory Coast are luky, they have a great leader in Ouattara who waited until the last moment to use force with a disciplened army. That is something to be noted rather than saying anything else than us is a good solution.
Thinking as Africa as one entity is a mistake done so easily by continent sized countries as the US.

But yes you are right: the issue will be solved soon. With a deployment of ONUCI troops and French troop in Abidjan to "securise" the civilian population (it's happening now).

[M-A Lagrange]

This morning Outtara troops were attacking his residence and have taken the national TV. (See:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12929625 and note the reported collapse of Gbagbo's troops).

As Patrick Achi said: Gbagbo has gone no where, he still believe gods will come to rescue him...

Finaly good news in sub saharian Africa

[Backwards Observer]

Only thing worse than an African solution to an African problem is an American, European, or Chinese solution to an African problem.

Unfortunately it seemed like Mr. Gbagbo was going for the worst of both worlds.

+++

Simone Gbagbo is an evangelical Christian and references to God fill her colourful speeches. Saturday’s address was no exception.
“God is leading our fight,” “God has already given us victory,” and “God is with the people, God chose Gbagbo” were just a few of the remarks heard at the rally in Abidjan.

'God has given us victory', Gbagbo's wife tells rally - africanewscircle(france24article) - 1/16/11

+++

The threat West African women present to the powerful was on vivid display in Ivory Coast on International Women’s Day. The nation’s military opened fire on a peaceful demonstration that included women dressed in white T-shirts. At least one woman died and three men were killed. These shootings come one week after the military killed seven women who were also part of a protest for peace.

Ivory Coast massacre mars International Women's Day - trustlaw - 3/14/11

[Dayuhan]

This would be true is Africa was a country or at least an homogeneous place. But that's not the case.

Yes, I know that... was just bouncing back this little bit from JMA:

The main idea which is to protect African dictators and non democratic kleptocracies through adopting the manta "African solutions to African problems"

People of Ivory Coast are luky, they have a great leader in Ouattara who waited until the last moment to use force with a disciplened army. That is something to be noted rather than saying anything else than us is a good solution.

We don't always have a solution, and if a local solution is available it's generally going to be better than an externally imposed one. Much better for Ouattara, in this case, to be the President whose own followers fought to put him where he belongs than to be the President who was put in the chair by intervening foreigners.

Not saying foreign intervention is never called for, but in the long run it's best, IMO, to treat it as a last resort rather than a default first choice. Nobody ever learned to solve problems by having someone else come in with a solution at the first sign of trouble.

[M-A Lagrange]

[QUOTE]

Yes, I know that... was just bouncing back this little bit from JMA:

The main idea which is to protect African dictators and non democratic kleptocracies through adopting the manta "African solutions to African problems"

Well, I still agree nd support JMA statement. But that's because I'm cynical.

We don't always have a solution, and if a local solution is available it's generally going to be better than an externally imposed one. Much better for Ouattara, in this case, to be the President whose own followers fought to put him where he belongs than to be the President who was put in the chair by intervening foreigners.
Not saying foreign intervention is never called for, but in the long run it's best, IMO, to treat it as a last resort rather than a default first choice. Nobody ever learned to solve problems by having someone else come in with a solution at the first sign of trouble.

200% agree with you.

[Bob's World]

When the legitimacy of government falls into question it makes any country ripe for unrest. Even in the US where we have tremendous (though I fear declining) popular faith in the system, it has been challenges of legitimacy that have created the greatest public uproar; first with the "Hanging Chads" in the Bush-Gore election, and then currently with questions over President Obama's birth certificate.

As countries becomes less stable and more troubled in general, such concerns are amplified.

I don't know much about the facts of the situation in general in the Ivory Coast, or of the recent events in particular, but I would look for indicators for public perceptions of the following factors in making my assessment:

1. Populace perceptions of their liberty (as measured based upon their historic, cultural expectations).
2. Populace perceptions of the legitimacy of their government. (recognition of its right to government them. what foreign bodies think is moot)
3.. Perceptions of justice. (how they feel about the application of the rule of law)
4. Perceptions of respect and equity (do any significant groups feel they are treated unfairly as a matter of some status)
5. And lastly I'd look at their perceptions of their ability to legally effect changes in the system.

We need to learn to look beyond our own perceptions of the situation or of the leaders on either side of the equation that emerge. It is too easy to let biases distract from clear eyed assessments of the critical drivers behind such movements.

Sometimes such things are "just" a play for power or wealth, and are not supported by a broad popular base of concern. Or, as often, the popular base of concern exists, but the small group playing for power or wealth are merely leveraging that for their own selfish gains.

My suspicion is that this is just one more chapter in what is going to be a long book of chaotic revolutions and evolutions of governance to emerge for the disruptive influences of western colonialism. I don't believe there are any shortcuts or quick fixes so long as the current borders and concepts of each being a sovereign state as defined by some European colonial body persist. Interventions may mitigate violence, but they typically ignore the core drivers of such conflicts and instability.