Especally with the Backward planning always using the worst case scenario quote you put up somewhere that I can no longer fine




Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
Back to the "in theory" bit. That's the rub -- theory and actuality often differ, intelligence is rarely adequate to the degree he envisions and that entails making assumptions. That's always dangerous and the Intel guys won't ordinarily do it, they're rather -- excessively, some say -- cautious that way.

Ken, further down he also says this about modeling sounds like pvebber tag line.

The Five-Ring Model
To make the concept of an enemy system useful and understandable, we must make a simplified model. We all use models daily and we all understand that they do not mirror reality. They do, however, give us a comprehensible picture of a complex phenomenon so that we can do something with it. The best models at the strategic level are those that give us the simplest possible big picture. As we need more detail, we expand portions of our model so that we can see finer and finer detail. It is important, however, that in constructing our model and using it, we always start from the big and work to the small.
copied from "The Enemy as a System" by Colonel John Warden


I am beat..... you guys will just have to wait till tomorrow.