Merv,

I haven't seen much on the unclassified side on Hambali's role in Thailand, other than he was allegedly planning attacks against several Thai Hotels, and maybe the APEC summit. Hambali is as evil and perhaps as good (tactically) as they come. His organization was largely responsible for a number of church bombings in Indonesia, which led to seriously bloody strife between Christians and Muslims. His goal is to create a greater pan-Islamic State that includes most of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Southern Philippines and Southern Thailand, and since he spent a fair amount of time in Malaysia isn't too far of reach to assume he "could" have contacted the insurgents in S. Thailand.

The million dollar question is do the insurgents want anything to do with the transnational movement? Most think they just want to liberate their region from Thailand, but then there rumors of rifts within the insurgent leadership, and if true does that mean there is a more radical faction vying for power?

Unfortunately the situation in Southern Thailand remains in a downward spiral, so your concern is not misplaced. For the most part (if not entirely) the insurgents have focused their attacks in the Southern Provinces. They are getting more effective (but still not anywhere near what I would call good yet). I think they're learning new TTP over the internet, because they still seem to be pretty clumsy compared to insurgents elsewhere who have had hands on training, but if you see a sudden spike in competence, then we can assume there is a reason for it, and I would suspect a training camp where foreigners are providing expert knowledge first hand.

The military wanted to implement a new strategy (more along the lines of a traditional COIN approach, where the focus is a political settlement), but I haven't seen many signs of it in the media yet. This situation deserves to be watched, and I only hope the Thai government reverses the current trends noted.